USDJPY Update: Apr 8, 2013

The largest channels are all pretty loose fits, with plenty of incursions that make forecasting with them iffy at best. But, the smaller channels and Harmonic Patterns have been pretty effective.  Even though USDJPY has been running like a 燃える尾を持つ猫, there is growing risk of a downturn as it approaches 100. Consider the new channel … continue reading →

Anatomy of a Top: 2000

The 2000 top shows just how “messy” tops can be.  Here’s the finished picture in perfect hind-sight.  It’s a very crowded chart, but every single pattern had a say in how the top unfolded. SPX had zoomed from 442 to 1478 in about 5 years, a not-too-shabby 234% gain for an annually compounded 27%. Once … continue reading →

Interest Rates: Breaking Out?

With the usual caveat that I’m not a bond guy (seriously, what’s the point?) I took a fresh look at interest rates on the 10-year note. The obvious downtrend over the past 15 years is well-captured by the purple channel below.  It has been marked, however, by a series of rising white channels, some of … continue reading →

What Gives? Feb 13, 2013

It was worth watching the SOTU last night just to see Boehner’s contortions, trying to scowl in a dignified, statesman-like way.  Nothing much new in the speech or the response. More interesting was Mitch McConnell’s comment on CNBC last night that the sequester will go into effect. I don’t know any reputable economist who believes … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Feb 1, 2013

ORIGINAL POST:  9:15 AM E-mini futures are up big overnight, but have yet to exceed Wednesday’s high. A positive revision in BLS’s Nov and Dec employment numbers makes 2012 look better than it did, but I’m not sure how it helps today’s 12.3 million unemployed or 8 million underemployed or 2.4 million marginally attached…   … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jan 29, 2013

Currencies are relatively quiet this morning in the midst of a slew of earnings and economic data. The dollar looks like it could hit our downside target of 79.50 – 79.59 from Jan 25 [see: Update on DX] this morning if the yellow channel holds, but note that its midline intersects with the bottom of … continue reading →

Now What?

First, a quick overview… The dollar got clobbered overnight, knocking it temporarily out of the white channel that’s guided it since Jan 11. But, interestingly, its RSI channel is doing just fine, thank you. The EURUSD continues to levitate, but still hasn’t broken the last important interim top put in on Feb 24.  It is … continue reading →

Down the Rabbit Hole: Part 2

Alice laughed: “There’s no use trying,” she said; “one can’t believe impossible things.”   “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”                                     ― Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventures … continue reading →

Winding Down

Beware the Fee-scal Cliff Today’s post concludes a week of publicly available intra-day posts, my little gift to those considering a pebblewriter membership.  Sorry, but the forecast is for members only. As announced on Monday, subscription prices will increase on January 1.  In keeping with the concept of paying for performance, the annual rate will … continue reading →