Charts I’m Watching: Aug 12, 2013

The eminis are flirting with danger this morning, having ducked below a key channel midline (dashed, purple) but bouncing off a smaller channel bottom and another channel midline (dashed, white) near a .786 (1674.15) for a Gartley Pattern completion. The dollar is threatening to break out of the falling wedge…. And, the SPX is set … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: May 10, 2013

The market bounced back a little into the close yesterday, and recovered further overnight.  ES retraced a Fibonacci .886 of the initial plunge, and is hanging in the small channel established over the past week. We shorted SPX at 1635 yesterday, but weren’t sure whether or not the upside was completely done. This morning, there’s … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Apr 16, 2013

We’re set to get a nice bounce here at the bottom of the purple channel — as revised in last night’s last post. Based on where the futures are pointing, I’m not sure whether it will have legs or not.  But, I’m inclined to play along on the upside, but with relatively tight stops in … continue reading →

USDJPY Update: Apr 8, 2013

The largest channels are all pretty loose fits, with plenty of incursions that make forecasting with them iffy at best. But, the smaller channels and Harmonic Patterns have been pretty effective.  Even though USDJPY has been running like a 燃える尾を持つ猫, there is growing risk of a downturn as it approaches 100. Consider the new channel … continue reading →

Anatomy of a Top: 2000

The 2000 top shows just how “messy” tops can be.  Here’s the finished picture in perfect hind-sight.  It’s a very crowded chart, but every single pattern had a say in how the top unfolded. SPX had zoomed from 442 to 1478 in about 5 years, a not-too-shabby 234% gain for an annually compounded 27%. Once … continue reading →

Interest Rates: Breaking Out?

With the usual caveat that I’m not a bond guy (seriously, what’s the point?) I took a fresh look at interest rates on the 10-year note. The obvious downtrend over the past 15 years is well-captured by the purple channel below.  It has been marked, however, by a series of rising white channels, some of … continue reading →

What Gives? Feb 13, 2013

It was worth watching the SOTU last night just to see Boehner’s contortions, trying to scowl in a dignified, statesman-like way.  Nothing much new in the speech or the response. More interesting was Mitch McConnell’s comment on CNBC last night that the sequester will go into effect. I don’t know any reputable economist who believes … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Feb 1, 2013

ORIGINAL POST:  9:15 AM E-mini futures are up big overnight, but have yet to exceed Wednesday’s high. A positive revision in BLS’s Nov and Dec employment numbers makes 2012 look better than it did, but I’m not sure how it helps today’s 12.3 million unemployed or 8 million underemployed or 2.4 million marginally attached…   … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jan 29, 2013

Currencies are relatively quiet this morning in the midst of a slew of earnings and economic data. The dollar looks like it could hit our downside target of 79.50 – 79.59 from Jan 25 [see: Update on DX] this morning if the yellow channel holds, but note that its midline intersects with the bottom of … continue reading →