Are We There Yet?

SPX came within 7 points of our downside target yesterday, getting a midday bounce that couldn’t quite reach the 200-DMA.  Futures popped as high as 73 points off the intraday lows, but have since given back about 12 of those points and are perched barely above ES SMA200 at a 28-pt gain in the after-hours. … continue reading →

Investing for Dummies

I use scores of chart patterns, Fibonacci grids, technical indicators and proprietary models in my daily attempts to forecast various markets.  Some are fairly complex, multivariate models that involve a half-dozen inputs.  Others are quite simple. One of my favorite simple indicators is the well-known 10-day/20-day moving average cross. It maintains that when the SMA10 … continue reading →

It’s a Wonderful Market

SPX and ES had no trouble reaching our initial downside targets — a backtest of their January highs.  We wondered, however, whether the SMA20s, loitering just below, might come into play. Sure enough, ES tagged its SMA20 with ease.  But, emini traders strongly resisted a drop through the SMA20 – bad mojo, don’t you know. … continue reading →

Crypto Carnage

As the currency turmoil continues, it’s interesting to note that cryptocurrencies are having a worse go of it than EMs. Meanwhile, futures dipped enough overnight to finally backtest the SMA10.  They’ve since rebounded enough to backtest the broken red channel.  It remains to be seen whether SPX will join in and backtest its SMA10 and … continue reading →

How Not to Manipulate Stock Prices

Sometimes you just can’t catch a break.  TSLA shares rose from 22 in 2012 to 387 in 2017 — helping drive Musk’s net worth to well over $20 billion.  But, the shares have since formed a triple top, failing to top 390 and coming perilously close to breaking down. This isn’t the first time Musk … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Aug 20, 2018

Futures are hanging on to a 4-pt gain, primarily on a continuing decline in VIX.  With Jackson Hole coming up, we could see more volatility — particularly if Fed speakers back off their hiking schedule. Speaking of backing off…TSLA is back down to its horizontal and trend line support.  As readers will recall, this is a … continue reading →

Engineering AAPL’s Breakout

The big news yesterday was AAPL’s market cap reaching $1 trillion.  For chartists, however, the big story was the breakout shown below. It’s hard to overstate the importance of this move.  Just a few days ago, the stock had broken below a trend line dating back to April 27 and was retreating from its 2.24 … continue reading →

Is Market Integrity Even a Thing Anymore?

Want to know where markets are going?  Just check Facebook.  The stock, that is. As I pointed out in March [see: Facebook Flops] the stock is a very reliable indicator of overall market direction.  And, right now, it’s threatening new all-time highs. But, its accomplishment raises an important question: does it matter how the stock … continue reading →

Update on Gold: Apr 11, 2018

In our last major update [see: Jan 26 Update] we noted that gold, 1355 at the time, had reached the same price level at which it had frequently reversed.  Even though we’d had a bullseye at 1377-1380 for over a year, it had stopped short several times. GC is sitting just below the neckline of … continue reading →

The Market’s Latest “Lucky” Bounce

That’s a relief!  For months, pundits have been arguing whether the Fed needed to hike interest rates three times or four times this year — you know, because of all the growth coming down the pike. Fed Über-Dove and “Man Who Thinks Market Integrity is Overrated” Jim Bullard just announced that the correct number is … continue reading →