Charts I’m Watching: Nov 5, 2018

Futures are back to flat, having bounced a bit on the Iran sanction news as it provided a modest (so far) bounce for oil and gas prices.The market has a wait and see feel to it this morning, with AAPL breaking down further……but, the algos all but ignoring it, focusing instead on dollar strength (TNX … continue reading →

Mixed Messages

The headlines have been coming fast and furious over the last 24 hours.  First, Trump’s tweet yesterday morning regarding trade negotiations with China touched off a rumor, declared false this morning, that a trade deal was imminent. But, SPX soared yesterday anyway. Then AAPL’s earnings came out.  The numbers were underwhelming; and, the company’s announcement … continue reading →

Appearances

It is often said that there are two sides to every story and, somewhere in middle, lies the price of oil.  Okay, I paraphrased that just a bit. But, isn’t it odd that the day after the Saudis threaten $400/barrel oil, Donald Trump suddenly embraces the ludicrous “rogue killers” theory for the death of Washington Post … continue reading →

Are We There Yet?

SPX came within 7 points of our downside target yesterday, getting a midday bounce that couldn’t quite reach the 200-DMA.  Futures popped as high as 73 points off the intraday lows, but have since given back about 12 of those points and are perched barely above ES SMA200 at a 28-pt gain in the after-hours.If … continue reading →

Investing for Dummies

I use scores of chart patterns, Fibonacci grids, technical indicators and proprietary models in my daily attempts to forecast various markets.  Some are fairly complex, multivariate models that involve a half-dozen inputs.  Others are quite simple. One of my favorite simple indicators is the well-known 10-day/20-day moving average cross. It maintains that when the SMA10 … continue reading →

It’s a Wonderful Market

SPX and ES had no trouble reaching our initial downside targets — a backtest of their January highs.  We wondered, however, whether the SMA20s, loitering just below, might come into play. Sure enough, ES tagged its SMA20 with ease.  But, emini traders strongly resisted a drop through the SMA20 – bad mojo, don’t you know. … continue reading →

Crypto Carnage

As the currency turmoil continues, it’s interesting to note that cryptocurrencies are having a worse go of it than EMs. Meanwhile, futures dipped enough overnight to finally backtest the SMA10.  They’ve since rebounded enough to backtest the broken red channel.  It remains to be seen whether SPX will join in and backtest its SMA10 and … continue reading →

How Not to Manipulate Stock Prices

Sometimes you just can’t catch a break.  TSLA shares rose from 22 in 2012 to 387 in 2017 — helping drive Musk’s net worth to well over $20 billion.  But, the shares have since formed a triple top, failing to top 390 and coming perilously close to breaking down. This isn’t the first time Musk … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Aug 20, 2018

Futures are hanging on to a 4-pt gain, primarily on a continuing decline in VIX.  With Jackson Hole coming up, we could see more volatility — particularly if Fed speakers back off their hiking schedule. Speaking of backing off…TSLA is back down to its horizontal and trend line support.  As readers will recall, this is a … continue reading →

Engineering AAPL’s Breakout

The big news yesterday was AAPL’s market cap reaching $1 trillion.  For chartists, however, the big story was the breakout shown below. It’s hard to overstate the importance of this move.  Just a few days ago, the stock had broken below a trend line dating back to April 27 and was retreating from its 2.24 … continue reading →