Put Up or Shut Up

It’s now been almost a month since we posted our analog-based forecast [see: Analog Watch July 15.]  If it’s valid, we should see a sharp selloff over the next few days which ushers in 9-12 months of increased volatility and losses. From that post: Ideally, an analog provides exceptionally accurate forecasts of a very significant … continue reading →

Deutsche Bank: Kann Dieses Schwein Pfeifen?

There’s a lovely English figure of speech which suggests the ridiculousness of something happening: “when pigs fly.”  In German, the same sentiment can be expressed by the expression “ich glaub mein Schwein pfeift” which means “I believe my pig whistles.”  DB is surely trying, but it’s having a hell of a time whistling a happy … continue reading →

Stocks on Track for More Losses

Things are playing out as expected, with ES coming within 5 points of our next downside target (the SMA200) overnight. The chart receiving the most attention is the 10Y, which broke below 22.94 and is on its way to our 21.72 target.The one which should be receiving the most attention is SPX, which closed below … continue reading →

A Broken Record

Though it is getting a little monotonous, I’ll never get tired of saying that we’re about to tag our next downside target. The past two weeks of downside have been a great recruiting tool for chart patterns and this website in particular. A note to prospective members…we’re currently offering auto-renew monthly subscriptions at half-off the … continue reading →

The Plunge the PPT is Really Protecting

The call the President’s working group the Plunge Protection Team, presumably because it protects the market from plunging.  It think they’ve got it wrong.  What it really does is protect plunges in volatility that, in turn, trigger algos to buy stocks. The VIX smackdown that Mnuchin’s Plunge Protection Team unleashed on December 24 has now … continue reading →

Buy, Machines, Buy!

I was on the road yesterday, so I listened to CNBC on XM while tooling around town. I lost count of how many pundits sounded downright angry about how the market was melting up. “It makes no sense!” they cried, citing countless statistics from plunging retail sales to plunging earnings expectations. Not one of them … continue reading →

If at First You Don’t Succeed…

Yesterday’s setup for the e-minis looked pretty straightforward: a drop through the 200-day moving average and backtest of the 2.24 Fibonacci extension at 2729. Futures had already dropped through the 200-DMA and were heading south when the dismal retail sales data dropped. I hedged my bet, redrawing our daily downside target to include the 10-DMA … continue reading →

Goal-Line Stand

SUBSCRIBERS:  Just updated our forecast page, including RB, CL, DXY, USDJPY, EURUSD, SPX/ES, Gold, VIX, COMP, DJIA, AAPL and bonds.  Check it out HERE.  *  *  * Rumbling toward the end zone, the bears ran into the bulls’ best defender: VIX.  As ES tagged our channel-line target a day ahead of schedule (and, therefore at … continue reading →