Bet Your Bottom Dollar: Part Deux

UPDATE:  10:30 AM Last night’s call on the dollar was timely.  Check out the candle on the daily chart — the completion of both a Bat and Butterfly pattern. EURUSD also seems to have put in a bottom, though as mentioned earlier it’s going to take ein Akt des Bundestages (literally) to save the euro … continue reading →

Bet Your Bottom Dollar

Interesting setup on DX that happens to complement the SPX/COMP/NYA charts posted Monday afternoon.  Check out the RSI trend line support. I’m inclined to believe the next several days will be very good for the dollar.  For equities — not so much.Meanwhile, the EURUSD shows signs of finally breaking down.  Both the pair and the … continue reading →

Spain Downgraded: April 26, 2012

S&P cuts Spain two notches, from A to BBB+, based on contracting economy…cites declining disposable income, private sector deleveraging, front-loaded fiscal consolidation and an uncertain outlook for external demand in many of Spain’s key trading partners.

This could be the catalyst for the turn we’ve been wondering about.  It could be the difference between the H&S and analog playing out versus our top alternative.  Notice that we did break the RSI trend line identified the other day (yellow, dashed) but were stopped by the 2nd one we discussed earlier today.  Today’s high was right at the shoulder line of the H&S pattern, and retraced a Fibonacci .707 of the recent 1422-1357 decline.

Keep an eye on the CDS and bond rates for Spain/Portugal/Italy and key regional banks.  Remember, all these rates are available right here, just go to the economics menu and select market data.

On the Verge: April 26, 2012

UPDATE:  5:35 PM S&P cuts Spain two notches, from A to BBB+, based on contracting economy…cites declining disposable income, private sector deleveraging, front-loaded fiscal consolidation and an uncertain outlook for external demand in many of Spain’s key trading partners.   UPDATE:  3:25 PM Here’s a close up of the alternative path, which looks stronger with … continue reading →

Update on EURUSD: April 24, 2012

April 24, 2012 From both a fundamental and technical standpoint, the long-term, medium-term and short-term pictures are all negative on the EURUSD.  Yet, it keeps hanging in there, the beneficiary of a great deal of ECB and, yes, Fed intervention. Here’s the long term picture as of this morning.  EURUSD has been stuck in that … continue reading →