We’ve Seen This Movie Before

I’ve seen one particular assessment over and over in the financial news this morning: The market’s rebound following Iran’s missile strikes last night was “surprising.” No, it is most certainly not surprising! Not even a little bit. Anyone who pays the least bit of attention to charts could have seen this coming a mile away. … continue reading →

The Snoozefest Continues

All the bullish factors which have kept stocks aloft the past two sessions are still going at it.  Hence, the futures’ snoozefest even as Trump is about to be impeached.The only potential fly in the ointment remains oil and gas, which have reached an important decision point. continued for members… … continue reading →

Inflation Games

Inflation drives interest rates. Though the Fed probably wishes it didn’t, it’s an inconvenient truth.  There are much tighter correlations, but consider the strong positive correlation between CPI and 10Y notes. This matters, of course, because with $22 trillion in debt, the US faces the same problem as the ECB and Japan: High interest rates … continue reading →

Test Passed, So Far…

ES spent 6 1/2 hours yesterday anguishing over the trend line/neckline we discussed.  When the Fed minutes came out, it even broke down a bit from the rising channel it had constructed overnight.  The breakdown seemed like it was sticking.  But, just after the close, WTI spiked and VIX dumped. That’s all it took to … continue reading →

Will This Time be Different?

We would almost always expect a big bounce off SPX’s 200-day moving average. Despite yesterday’s dip below the 200-DMA, the index dutifully crept back above it in time for the close.  And, the futures are currently showing an 8-point gain.Yet, if an analog I’ve been watching and our yield curve model are correct, this bounce … continue reading →

Stocks on Track for More Losses

Things are playing out as expected, with ES coming within 5 points of our next downside target (the SMA200) overnight. The chart receiving the most attention is the 10Y, which broke below 22.94 and is on its way to our 21.72 target.The one which should be receiving the most attention is SPX, which closed below … continue reading →

TSLA Skids Into an Important Target

We started posting about TSLA a little over a year ago when it dipped below important horizontal support [see: Can Tesla Avoid a Crash?] We’ve updated the charts multiple times since then, working to stay ahead of Musk’s obvious attempts to manipulate the stock.  The harmonic picture has been tricky due to the presence of … continue reading →