Macro Factor Cycles and Regime Shifts

Some time ago, I noticed that CL’s (WTI light sweet crude oil futures) three important tops since 2008 were almost the same number of days apart. This cycle certainly caught my eye.After tugging on that thread, I found a similar situation regarding CL’s lows. The 2001-2009 cycle was only 31 days longer than the 2009-2016 … continue reading →

The Plunge the PPT is Really Protecting

The call the President’s working group the Plunge Protection Team, presumably because it protects the market from plunging.  It think they’ve got it wrong.  What it really does is protect plunges in volatility that, in turn, trigger algos to buy stocks. The VIX smackdown that Mnuchin’s Plunge Protection Team unleashed on December 24 has now … continue reading →

One Step Forward, Two Steps Back

While January’s retail sales saw a modest rebound (+0.2% MoM), December’s were revised downward from -1.2% to -1.6%. Futures bumped slightly higher, presumably because a slowing economy protects the market from Fed tightening.  In reality, it was driven by continuing VIX algo-signalling. With key DJIA component Boeing off sharply in the pre-market, today could be … continue reading →

Unspinnable

An extremely disappointing payrolls report put February new hires at 20K.  I had to look twice, certain that a digit had been left out.To make matters worse, hourly earnings spiked 3.4% YoY, far in excess of what all the Goldilocks models suggested. It should be entertaining to see how Kudlow et al. spin this one. … continue reading →

If at First You Don’t Succeed…

Yesterday’s setup for the e-minis looked pretty straightforward: a drop through the 200-day moving average and backtest of the 2.24 Fibonacci extension at 2729. Futures had already dropped through the 200-DMA and were heading south when the dismal retail sales data dropped. I hedged my bet, redrawing our daily downside target to include the 10-DMA … continue reading →

Goal-Line Stand

SUBSCRIBERS:  Just updated our forecast page, including RB, CL, DXY, USDJPY, EURUSD, SPX/ES, Gold, VIX, COMP, DJIA, AAPL and bonds.  Check it out HERE.  *  *  * Rumbling toward the end zone, the bears ran into the bulls’ best defender: VIX.  As ES tagged our channel-line target a day ahead of schedule (and, therefore at … continue reading →

Delay of Game

Nothing much has changed since yesterday.  SPX bounced around in our target zone, coming within a few points of its SMA200 as VIX went nowhere. The one notable exception was AAPL, which after tagging our downside target on Jan 3 $from last November [see: AAPL Discovers Gravity] reached our upside target yesterday. We originally charted … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Nov 5, 2018

Futures are back to flat, having bounced a bit on the Iran sanction news as it provided a modest (so far) bounce for oil and gas prices.The market has a wait and see feel to it this morning, with AAPL breaking down further……but, the algos all but ignoring it, focusing instead on dollar strength (TNX … continue reading →

Coincidences and Consequences

It’s interesting how Khashoggi’s murder top-ticked oil and gas prices… …and, so soon after Trump’s latest demand that OPEC lower oil prices. I’m certainly not insinuating that Trump had anything to do with Khashoggi’s murder. But, OPEC ignored Trump’s Sep 20 demand.  Two weeks later, oil prices had spiked 10% higher.  Since Oct 3, the … continue reading →