It’s a Wonderful Market

SPX and ES had no trouble reaching our initial downside targets — a backtest of their January highs.  We wondered, however, whether the SMA20s, loitering just below, might come into play. Sure enough, ES tagged its SMA20 with ease.  But, emini traders strongly resisted a drop through the SMA20 – bad mojo, don’t you know. … continue reading →

A Backtest or More?

Today should shape up as a battle between holding a much-cherished round number (SPX 2900) and backtesting solid support (the January highs.) The futures are off about 5, with yesterday’s downside target of 2878.50-2881.95 still looking good — if SPX will relinquish 2900. Much will depend on the yen, which is strengthening in the midst … continue reading →

Currency Complications

USDJPY reached our target at the SMA100/SMA200 overnight, at least temporarily bringing the pair back below the top of the falling white channel from which it broke out on July 10.  Readers will recall that breakout was instrumental in helping SPX break above its faux IH&S neckline 66 points ago. A USDJPY rebound here is … continue reading →

Update on Gold: Apr 11, 2018

In our last major update [see: Jan 26 Update] we noted that gold, 1355 at the time, had reached the same price level at which it had frequently reversed.  Even though we’d had a bullseye at 1377-1380 for over a year, it had stopped short several times. GC is sitting just below the neckline of … continue reading →

Gold: Following the Yellow Brick Road

I’m not a gold bug.  I’ve always thought the price is pretty heavily manipulated (long before it hit the headlines) and I guess I’ve avoided it on principle.  Looking back at my forecasts over the past year or so, that was probably a mistake. Since our December 14, 2015 forecast, GC has gained about 19% … continue reading →