Update on Gold: Jan 2, 2020

In our Aug 28, 2019 Update on Gold I noted that although GC had just reached our 1560 target, ZN had also reached our 132’100 target.  The picture was further muddled by the fact that DXY and GC had been moving in unison – an unusual occurrence, to say the least. ZN’s resistance could put … continue reading →

The Snoozefest Continues

All the bullish factors which have kept stocks aloft the past two sessions are still going at it.  Hence, the futures’ snoozefest even as Trump is about to be impeached.The only potential fly in the ointment remains oil and gas, which have reached an important decision point. continued for members… … continue reading →

Because Appearances Matter

It’s not too surprising that there’s been a firm floor under oil and gas prices, given the upcoming Aramco IPO.  But, isn’t it funny how CL has popped above its SMA200 every single day this week, even in the wake of dismal inventory data? Just like it’s funny that ES, which pretty obviously should have … continue reading →

FOMC Hopium

The approach of the FOMC meeting which begins today has been very good for stocks.  There’s nothing unusual about this. Like OPEX dates, stocks almost always rally into such important lines in the sand. Most investors have lost track, however, of the fact that stocks have usually declined after such meetings.With SPX a few points … continue reading →

Put Up or Shut Up

It’s now been almost a month since we posted our analog-based forecast [see: Analog Watch July 15.]  If it’s valid, we should see a sharp selloff over the next few days which ushers in 9-12 months of increased volatility and losses. From that post: Ideally, an analog provides exceptionally accurate forecasts of a very significant … continue reading →

Stocks on Track for More Losses

Things are playing out as expected, with ES coming within 5 points of our next downside target (the SMA200) overnight. The chart receiving the most attention is the 10Y, which broke below 22.94 and is on its way to our 21.72 target.The one which should be receiving the most attention is SPX, which closed below … continue reading →

A Broken Record

Though it is getting a little monotonous, I’ll never get tired of saying that we’re about to tag our next downside target. The past two weeks of downside have been a great recruiting tool for chart patterns and this website in particular. A note to prospective members…we’re currently offering auto-renew monthly subscriptions at half-off the … continue reading →

Not Exactly Reassuring…

The markets weren’t exactly reassured by Powell’s testimony yesterday.  Bottom line, no one in their right mind buys the idea that we can have such strong GDP and wage growth but still need such accommodative policy. IMO, Powell was curt and sometimes downright evasive, which didn’t help matters. Stocks plunged to our initial downside target, … continue reading →

Macro Factor Cycles and Regime Shifts

Some time ago, I noticed that CL’s (WTI light sweet crude oil futures) three important tops since 2008 were almost the same number of days apart. This cycle certainly caught my eye.After tugging on that thread, I found a similar situation regarding CL’s lows. The 2001-2009 cycle was only 31 days longer than the 2009-2016 … continue reading →