Will This Time be Different?

We would almost always expect a big bounce off SPX’s 200-day moving average. Despite yesterday’s dip below the 200-DMA, the index dutifully crept back above it in time for the close.  And, the futures are currently showing an 8-point gain.Yet, if an analog I’ve been watching and our yield curve model are correct, this bounce … continue reading →

TSLA Skids Into an Important Target

We started posting about TSLA a little over a year ago when it dipped below important horizontal support [see: Can Tesla Avoid a Crash?] We’ve updated the charts multiple times since then, working to stay ahead of Musk’s obvious attempts to manipulate the stock.  The harmonic picture has been tricky due to the presence of … continue reading →

A Broken Record

Though it is getting a little monotonous, I’ll never get tired of saying that we’re about to tag our next downside target. The past two weeks of downside have been a great recruiting tool for chart patterns and this website in particular. A note to prospective members…we’re currently offering auto-renew monthly subscriptions at half-off the … continue reading →

Time for Bulls to Get Nervous?

SPX needed about 22 points downside to reach the support of its SMA50, a rising channel bottom, and a falling channel bottom.  ES, which finally reached our 2655 target from last week [see FOMC: Endgame] is currently off 30 points. At this rate, SPX will breach its support on the open, especially if USDJPY doesn’t … continue reading →

Buy, Machines, Buy!

I was on the road yesterday, so I listened to CNBC on XM while tooling around town. I lost count of how many pundits sounded downright angry about how the market was melting up. “It makes no sense!” they cried, citing countless statistics from plunging retail sales to plunging earnings expectations. Not one of them … continue reading →

If at First You Don’t Succeed…

Yesterday’s setup for the e-minis looked pretty straightforward: a drop through the 200-day moving average and backtest of the 2.24 Fibonacci extension at 2729. Futures had already dropped through the 200-DMA and were heading south when the dismal retail sales data dropped. I hedged my bet, redrawing our daily downside target to include the 10-DMA … continue reading →

Mixed Messages

The headlines have been coming fast and furious over the last 24 hours.  First, Trump’s tweet yesterday morning regarding trade negotiations with China touched off a rumor, declared false this morning, that a trade deal was imminent. But, SPX soared yesterday anyway. Then AAPL’s earnings came out.  The numbers were underwhelming; and, the company’s announcement … continue reading →

Appearances

It is often said that there are two sides to every story and, somewhere in middle, lies the price of oil.  Okay, I paraphrased that just a bit. But, isn’t it odd that the day after the Saudis threaten $400/barrel oil, Donald Trump suddenly embraces the ludicrous “rogue killers” theory for the death of Washington Post … continue reading →

Are We There Yet?

SPX came within 7 points of our downside target yesterday, getting a midday bounce that couldn’t quite reach the 200-DMA.  Futures popped as high as 73 points off the intraday lows, but have since given back about 12 of those points and are perched barely above ES SMA200 at a 28-pt gain in the after-hours.If … continue reading →

The Market’s Latest “Lucky” Bounce

That’s a relief!  For months, pundits have been arguing whether the Fed needed to hike interest rates three times or four times this year — you know, because of all the growth coming down the pike. Fed Über-Dove and “Man Who Thinks Market Integrity is Overrated” Jim Bullard just announced that the correct number is … continue reading →