The Market’s Latest “Lucky” Bounce

That’s a relief!  For months, pundits have been arguing whether the Fed needed to hike interest rates three times or four times this year — you know, because of all the growth coming down the pike. Fed Über-Dove and “Man Who Thinks Market Integrity is Overrated” Jim Bullard just announced that the correct number is … continue reading →

Does the Yield Curve Matter? A Closer Look

I called a top in SPX on May 20, 2015 [see: The Last Big Butterfly] because it was about to reach the 1.618 Fib extension at 2138 — our upside target from way back in 2012.  SPX peaked the following day and fell over 300 points before it was all over. What I didn’t notice … continue reading →

That Escalated Quickly!

It was just last Tuesday we asked “where’s the bounce?”  SPX had gapped lower and failed to rebound the way it always seems to has for the past year. We had watched a trend line dating back to Dec 29 (below, in red) break down, and were wondering about the small, white channel.  From Where’s … continue reading →

The Rally That VIX Built

As discussed yesterday, stocks spent the night building a cushion based on VIX (currently off 5.4%) in preparation for tomorrow’s FOMC announcement.  It started just before the close, yesterday, and has built to a 6-pt gain in the futures.Actually, it’s been less of a rally, lately, and more of an effort to maintain ES at … continue reading →

Pulling Out All the Stops

When unexpected unpleasantness unfurls, you can count on central banks to pull out all the stops. Such is the case with the British election results which, like Brexit, have wreaked havoc on FX markets. EURGBP, having broken down from its rising red channel dating back to mid-2015, was well on its way to a perfectly … continue reading →

This is a Test

Yesterday, we got a taste of what happens to United Airlines passengers who are “disruptive and belligerent.”   In what is being described as one of the biggest PR fails in recent memory, United CEO Oscar Munoz defended the action taken to forcefully drag an Asian-American doctor from a flight that United had overbooked. No … continue reading →

Fed Minutes: How Hawkish Are They?

Markets tend to moves higher on Fed minutes days, even if the news isn’t all that positive.  It’s all about convincing investors that the FOMC has their best interests at heart — that all they’re worried about is making sure that stocks continue to rally. Today’s session is slightly complicated, then, by ADP employment which came … continue reading →

Gold: Following the Yellow Brick Road

I’m not a gold bug.  I’ve always thought the price is pretty heavily manipulated (long before it hit the headlines) and I guess I’ve avoided it on principle.  Looking back at my forecasts over the past year or so, that was probably a mistake. Since our December 14, 2015 forecast, GC has gained about 19% … continue reading →

Reproach and Retreat

The first big Republican victory — the repeal and replace of the ACA — has morphed into reproach and retreat.  The net impact: what does this failure portend for the rest of the Trump agenda and, thus, the Trump Rally? Regular readers know that I’ve looked askance at this rally from the start [see: Why the “Trump … continue reading →

Horseshoes and Hand Grenades

There’s an old expression that says “close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.”  So, we spent most of the day yesterday wondering whether the day’s 2336.45 lows were close enough to our long-held downside target of 2335.34.The tag was marred by premature reversals in oil and VIX.  Did the guys working the algos not get … continue reading →