Charts I’m Watching: Mar 21, 2013

ORIGINAL POST:  9:25 AM The EURUSD is still trying to change trajectories (purple channel to red), but hasn’t been able to break out yet. The dollar is similarly facing a change in direction if the red channel can hold. Judging from the futures, SPX is set to react off the neckline and TL we’ve been … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Mar 20, 2012

The ECB will do “whatever it takes”, which I guess now translates into strong-arming the Russians into bailing out Cyprus.  Still no break out on the EURUSD, though. It makes sense to play along with the upside, but keep stops close.  It’s questionable whether this rally will have any legs. The dollar looks like it’s finding … continue reading →

Update on Bonds: Mar 07, 2013

If rates really are heading back up in the near future, we’d expect to see bonds take a hit (and stocks, too, but that’s a different post.)  Back on Jan 21, we focused on the 10-year treasury (ZN.) We observed that ZN had just completed a large Crab Pattern and broken down from a rising … continue reading →

Interest Rates: Breaking Out?

With the usual caveat that I’m not a bond guy (seriously, what’s the point?) I took a fresh look at interest rates on the 10-year note. The obvious downtrend over the past 15 years is well-captured by the purple channel below.  It has been marked, however, by a series of rising white channels, some of … continue reading →

A New Analog: EURUSD

As noted back on Feb 21, the EURUSD has broken down from its rising channel (white) and accelerated to the downside, breaking the Jan 4 1.2996 low and the psychologically important 1.30 level. The intersection of the purple .618 and two white channels at 1.38 will have to wait (till my next visit across the … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Mar 1, 2013

Getting a nice sell-off following the completion of the Bat Pattern we were tracking yesterday.  Shown below on the eminis… The downside path is clear.  But, bulls will probably go for the obvious IH&S with what should be a decent bounce somewhere around 1495-1500. The dollar reached our 82.136-82.281 target from several days ago, and … continue reading →

The Big Picture: Feb 27, 2013

ORIGINAL POST:  6:00 AM SPX ended yesterday just below our 1497 trigger point at the neckline.  I know the bulls would love to blow through this level and negate the H&S, but I think they’ve really got their work cut out for them, especially given the political mess in Italy and the looming US sequester. … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Feb 25, 2013

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