Charts I’m Watching: Apr 12, 2017

As we noted yesterday, SPX is hanging on by the skin of its teeth to a breakout.  Despite an 18-pt intraday plunge, it recovered by the end of the session thanks to a timely decline in VIX and rally in WTI.  Will it be enough to keep the trend intact? continued for members… … continue reading →

Next Steps

We’ve been watching a triangle form for over a month, wondering whether/when it would break out or break down. Yesterday, we got our answer. After coming within .40 of our 2170-2173 target on Monday, the triangle broke down — despite vigorous intraday ramping in USDJPY and CL.  Tuesday’s initial downside target at 2150 was taken … continue reading →

Why the Market Didn’t Correct Today

Hint: it’s the same reason the “market” hasn’t corrected much at all for the past six weeks.  And, no, there’s no free lunch involved. The day started with some tragic news out of Brussels.  ISIS terrorists attacked innocent civilians at the airport and a metro station, killing dozens and wounding hundreds.  Brussels is the de … continue reading →

Ay, There’s the Rube

Oil is often viewed as a proxy for economic health.  In a growing economy, energy consumption increases.  This increased demand generally pressures prices higher.  Likewise, a decline in oil prices often accompanies declining demand. That’s a greatly oversimplified view, of course.  It ignores such important issues such as Middle East tensions, weather and refinery anomalies, … continue reading →

Update on Oil: Sep 20, 2012

Oil has tumbled the past few days, begging the question “what about QE3?”  It was supposed to prop up commodity prices.  There are many competing theories as to the influence of elections, Saudi assistance, etc.  But, the bottom line is CL had tagged some important channel lines and simply corrected. There are some pretty obvious … continue reading →