Update on Gold: May 15, 2013

Our last update [Apr 15] devoted to gold came in the midst of a huge meltdown.  Gold had lost channel support, horizontal support at the psychologically important level of 1500 and was dropping like a rock through 1335. Never one to shy away from an opportunity to embarrass myself, I gave my best guess: we … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: May 10, 2013

The market bounced back a little into the close yesterday, and recovered further overnight.  ES retraced a Fibonacci .886 of the initial plunge, and is hanging in the small channel established over the past week. We shorted SPX at 1635 yesterday, but weren’t sure whether or not the upside was completely done. This morning, there’s … continue reading →


It certainly looks like we’re almost there. The eminis seem to be already there… The EURUSD is clinging by its fingernails… The dollar looks ready to rumble… The USDJPY is making a bid for an IH&S, but has run smack dab into that yellow channel midline again…moment of truth for the yen… This morning’s dip … continue reading →

XLF: Playing Catch Up

On April 2, 2012, SPX completed a Butterfly Pattern at 1421 — the 1.272 extension of the July – October 2011 plunge.  It provided a great entry point for the fledgling pebblewriter.com’s first major short position. We scored over 20% in about 2 months [see: All the Pretty Butterflies] trading the 11% decline. XLF hadn’t … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Apr 16, 2013

We’re set to get a nice bounce here at the bottom of the purple channel — as revised in last night’s last post. Based on where the futures are pointing, I’m not sure whether it will have legs or not.  But, I’m inclined to play along on the upside, but with relatively tight stops in … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Mar 20, 2012

The ECB will do “whatever it takes”, which I guess now translates into strong-arming the Russians into bailing out Cyprus.  Still no break out on the EURUSD, though. It makes sense to play along with the upside, but keep stops close.  It’s questionable whether this rally will have any legs. The dollar looks like it’s finding … continue reading →

Update on Bonds: Mar 07, 2013

If rates really are heading back up in the near future, we’d expect to see bonds take a hit (and stocks, too, but that’s a different post.)  Back on Jan 21, we focused on the 10-year treasury (ZN.) We observed that ZN had just completed a large Crab Pattern and broken down from a rising … continue reading →

Interest Rates: Breaking Out?

With the usual caveat that I’m not a bond guy (seriously, what’s the point?) I took a fresh look at interest rates on the 10-year note. The obvious downtrend over the past 15 years is well-captured by the purple channel below.  It has been marked, however, by a series of rising white channels, some of … continue reading →