Gold continues to rise on expectations of quantitative easing — whether from the ECB or the Fed. In our last update [see: August 22 Update on Gold] prices had reached our August 15 target of 1655 and had broken out of the descending triangle we’d identified. Our target at the time was 1762, which is … continue reading →
Tag Archives: bat
ORIGINAL POST: 9:30AM The dollar and the euro each overshot our short-term targets just a tad, but are resuming the path we mapped out for them last week. The EURUSD came very close to a key .886 Fib level, prompting many to wonder “was that it?” I wasn’t so sure, myself. The resultant sell-off was … continue reading →
UPDATE: August 22, 2012 Today, gold reached the 1655 target from our August 15 forecast — closing at 1656.20. Note that this represents a probable breach of the descending triangle upper bound as well as a tag of the Fibonacci .886 level of 1655.70 for a proper Bat Pattern completion. continued… … continue reading →
It’s been a while since our last look at the big picture in NDX. I’ve focused more on broader indices such as SPX, RUT and NYA. And, NDX has been subject to excesses, thanks to the impact its largest component — AAPL — has on its performance. But, over the past several months, it’s been … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 11:30 AM SPX might be tracing out either a flag or pennant pattern on the 15-min chart. While either could portend higher prices (2/3 of the time), a flag would mean lower prices first — probably down into the mid 1370s. At first blush, the market seems to be respecting the last … continue reading →
Bat Patterns are one of the more common harmonic patterns. They are similar to Gartley Patterns, except that the AB retracement can be anywhere less than the Fibonacci .618 of the XA leg and the AD leg completes at the .886. Because the AB leg can be anything < .618, we have to be a … continue reading →
Regular readers are well-acquainted with one of the tools we frequently use in forecasting VIX: the channels on its daily RSI chart. On April 18, with VIX at 18.70, RSI channels helped me forecast a high of 27.13 [see: VIX at a Crossroads.] VIX reached its yearly high of 27.73 on June 4. Being able … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 9:15 AM The ugly NFP has been called “not ugly enough” to bring on more QE immediately. Let’s look at how the current 10-pt ES loss might shake out on the opening. continued… … continue reading →
RUT is again nearing its previous highs of 856 (July ’07) and 868 (May 2011.) It’s already exceeded the .886 of each of those, and is rapidly approaching the .886 retracement of its most recent dip from 848 to 730 (March 27 – June 4, 2012). As charted back on June 15 [see: Forecasts, Darts … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 11:15 AM In something akin to a recess appointment, the market is making a run for our target area (the rectangle in the chart below) during a holiday-shortened trading session. We’ll look at the chances it has of getting there and the most likely impediments. First, the little pullback we had to the … continue reading →