The Market’s Latest “Lucky” Bounce

That’s a relief!  For months, pundits have been arguing whether the Fed needed to hike interest rates three times or four times this year — you know, because of all the growth coming down the pike. Fed Über-Dove and “Man Who Thinks Market Integrity is Overrated” Jim Bullard just announced that the correct number is … continue reading →

Does the Yield Curve Matter? A Closer Look

I called a top in SPX on May 20, 2015 [see: The Last Big Butterfly] because it was about to reach the 1.618 Fib extension at 2138 — our upside target from way back in 2012.  SPX peaked the following day and fell over 300 points before it was all over. What I didn’t notice … continue reading →

The Same, but Different

Yesterday started out with a VIX-driven pop that quickly fizzled and nailed our downside target before rebounding and hitting our upside target.  Since SPX closed right at resistance, it needed a boost overnight.  So, why not go back to the same clever trick that worked the day before? Yes, VIX’s red channel has broken down … continue reading →

Chart Patterns and You

ORIGINAL POST:  9:15 AM Last night, the dollar tagged the .786 Fib retracement of its decline from Apr 4.  It subsequently sold off almost to the .618 but, so far, is hanging in a rising wedge. The EURUSD re-tested the .500 Fib of its rise from Apr 3, and snapped back into its falling wedge … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Mar 20, 2012

The ECB will do “whatever it takes”, which I guess now translates into strong-arming the Russians into bailing out Cyprus.  Still no break out on the EURUSD, though. It makes sense to play along with the upside, but keep stops close.  It’s questionable whether this rally will have any legs. The dollar looks like it’s finding … continue reading →

A New Analog: EURUSD

As noted back on Feb 21, the EURUSD has broken down from its rising channel (white) and accelerated to the downside, breaking the Jan 4 1.2996 low and the psychologically important 1.30 level. The intersection of the purple .618 and two white channels at 1.38 will have to wait (till my next visit across the … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jan 8, 2012

We’re getting a little more momentum going on the downside today.  SPX completed the small H&S pattern I posted yesterday.  It targets 1445 — approximately the .146 Fib of the 1266.74 – 1474.51 rally. DX completed its back test of the falling red channel and continues to show strong positive divergence.  The RSI chart shows … continue reading →