Chart Patterns and You

ORIGINAL POST:  9:15 AM Last night, the dollar tagged the .786 Fib retracement of its decline from Apr 4.  It subsequently sold off almost to the .618 but, so far, is hanging in a rising wedge. The EURUSD re-tested the .500 Fib of its rise from Apr 3, and snapped back into its falling wedge … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Mar 20, 2012

The ECB will do “whatever it takes”, which I guess now translates into strong-arming the Russians into bailing out Cyprus.  Still no break out on the EURUSD, though. It makes sense to play along with the upside, but keep stops close.  It’s questionable whether this rally will have any legs. The dollar looks like it’s finding … continue reading →

A New Analog: EURUSD

As noted back on Feb 21, the EURUSD has broken down from its rising channel (white) and accelerated to the downside, breaking the Jan 4 1.2996 low and the psychologically important 1.30 level. The intersection of the purple .618 and two white channels at 1.38 will have to wait (till my next visit across the … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jan 8, 2012

We’re getting a little more momentum going on the downside today.  SPX completed the small H&S pattern I posted yesterday.  It targets 1445 — approximately the .146 Fib of the 1266.74 – 1474.51 rally. DX completed its back test of the falling red channel and continues to show strong positive divergence.  The RSI chart shows … continue reading →

Down the Rabbit Hole: Part 2

Alice laughed: “There’s no use trying,” she said; “one can’t believe impossible things.”   “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”                                     ― Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventures … continue reading →

Down the Rabbit Hole

“In another moment down went Alice after it, never once considering how in the world she was to get out again.” ― Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland Not quite four months ago, the Fed guaranteed lower interest rates and higher stock prices forever.  At least that was the mainstream media’s take on QE3.  The … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Dec 24, 2012

Strange things have happened around holidays this past year.  Though this is a short day (equity markets close at 1pm EST) it’s best to remain vigilant.  Equity futures have recovered most of their overnight losses, and TPTB would love nothing more than to undo the gains we’ve racked up (since shorting on the 18th) while … continue reading →

The Morning After

What a disaster for Boehner & Co. last night.   Did we really need another warring faction?  What are we — Greece!? Wait, don’t answer that!  The markets will not take kindly to this additional complication. Today’s theme song: Maureen McGovern’s song from the 1972 Poseidon Adventure.   Don’t laugh, it won an Academy Award! What sold … continue reading →