One Step Forward, Two Steps Back

While January’s retail sales saw a modest rebound (+0.2% MoM), December’s were revised downward from -1.2% to -1.6%. Futures bumped slightly higher, presumably because a slowing economy protects the market from Fed tightening.  In reality, it was driven by continuing VIX algo-signalling. With key DJIA component Boeing off sharply in the pre-market, today could be … continue reading →

If at First You Don’t Succeed…

Yesterday’s setup for the e-minis looked pretty straightforward: a drop through the 200-day moving average and backtest of the 2.24 Fibonacci extension at 2729. Futures had already dropped through the 200-DMA and were heading south when the dismal retail sales data dropped. I hedged my bet, redrawing our daily downside target to include the 10-DMA … continue reading →

Delay of Game

Nothing much has changed since yesterday.  SPX bounced around in our target zone, coming within a few points of its SMA200 as VIX went nowhere. The one notable exception was AAPL, which after tagging our downside target on Jan 3 $from last November [see: AAPL Discovers Gravity] reached our upside target yesterday. We originally charted … continue reading →

Update on COMP: Dec 7, 2018

Don’t look now, but COMP is approaching our 6760 target.  As we discussed on Oct 10 [see: Plan B] COMP faced significant downside if its 200-DMA didn’t hold. Bottom line, it didn’t.  It was off as much as 13.3% last month before beginning a bounce that was destined to fail.  Next week, it will get … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Nov 5, 2018

Futures are back to flat, having bounced a bit on the Iran sanction news as it provided a modest (so far) bounce for oil and gas prices.The market has a wait and see feel to it this morning, with AAPL breaking down further……but, the algos all but ignoring it, focusing instead on dollar strength (TNX … continue reading →

Mixed Messages

The headlines have been coming fast and furious over the last 24 hours.  First, Trump’s tweet yesterday morning regarding trade negotiations with China touched off a rumor, declared false this morning, that a trade deal was imminent. But, SPX soared yesterday anyway. Then AAPL’s earnings came out.  The numbers were underwhelming; and, the company’s announcement … continue reading →

Engineering AAPL’s Breakout

The big news yesterday was AAPL’s market cap reaching $1 trillion.  For chartists, however, the big story was the breakout shown below. It’s hard to overstate the importance of this move.  Just a few days ago, the stock had broken below a trend line dating back to April 27 and was retreating from its 2.24 … continue reading →

How Exposed is AAPL?

The longstanding rumor is that earnings will disappoint.  The more recent rumor — which has kept the stock on the rise all day and into the after-hours — is that the company will greatly increase the share repurchase plan and dividends. I have no special insight or inside knowledge about its earnings, unit sales, or … continue reading →