Will This Time be Different?

We would almost always expect a big bounce off SPX’s 200-day moving average. Despite yesterday’s dip below the 200-DMA, the index dutifully crept back above it in time for the close.  And, the futures are currently showing an 8-point gain.Yet, if an analog I’ve been watching and our yield curve model are correct, this bounce … continue reading →

Stocks on Track for More Losses

Things are playing out as expected, with ES coming within 5 points of our next downside target (the SMA200) overnight. The chart receiving the most attention is the 10Y, which broke below 22.94 and is on its way to our 21.72 target.The one which should be receiving the most attention is SPX, which closed below … continue reading →

A Broken Record

Though it is getting a little monotonous, I’ll never get tired of saying that we’re about to tag our next downside target. The past two weeks of downside have been a great recruiting tool for chart patterns and this website in particular. A note to prospective members…we’re currently offering auto-renew monthly subscriptions at half-off the … continue reading →

Not Exactly Reassuring…

The markets weren’t exactly reassured by Powell’s testimony yesterday.  Bottom line, no one in their right mind buys the idea that we can have such strong GDP and wage growth but still need such accommodative policy. IMO, Powell was curt and sometimes downright evasive, which didn’t help matters. Stocks plunged to our initial downside target, … continue reading →

One Step Forward, Two Steps Back

While January’s retail sales saw a modest rebound (+0.2% MoM), December’s were revised downward from -1.2% to -1.6%. Futures bumped slightly higher, presumably because a slowing economy protects the market from Fed tightening.  In reality, it was driven by continuing VIX algo-signalling. With key DJIA component Boeing off sharply in the pre-market, today could be … continue reading →

If at First You Don’t Succeed…

Yesterday’s setup for the e-minis looked pretty straightforward: a drop through the 200-day moving average and backtest of the 2.24 Fibonacci extension at 2729. Futures had already dropped through the 200-DMA and were heading south when the dismal retail sales data dropped. I hedged my bet, redrawing our daily downside target to include the 10-DMA … continue reading →

Delay of Game

Nothing much has changed since yesterday.  SPX bounced around in our target zone, coming within a few points of its SMA200 as VIX went nowhere. The one notable exception was AAPL, which after tagging our downside target on Jan 3 $from last November [see: AAPL Discovers Gravity] reached our upside target yesterday. We originally charted … continue reading →