Recession Signals on the Rise

The New York Fed reported one of the clearest signs yet that not everything is hunky dory in econ land. In a move that matches the early stages of the 2008 plunge, the Empire Fed Economic Activity Index just plunged to -14.92 (expectations +4.50.)  It’s the biggest miss in over 5 years.

chartLook for USDJPY to sell off just enough to matter — but, not so much that it reflects badly on the Japanese economy, which had its own embarrassing print last night.  2015-08-17 USDJPY 60 0615GDP declined at an annualized rate of -1.6%, another signal that Abenomics hasn’t worked, isn’t working, and never, ever can work.  To Abe worshipers, of course, this is yet another justification for the coming expansion of QQE.

japan-gdp-growthES is currently off around 9 points.  2015-08-17 ES 60 0625Perhaps SPX will get some follow-through to last week’s elusive target: the SMA200, currently at 2076.54.

2015-08-17 SPX 60 0625UPDATE:  9:40 AM

Gotta hand it to the PPT.  What they lack in integrity, they make up in single-minded determination.  There’s another point or two of downside in ES if that little trend line is to hold.  It currently shows two higher highs and two higher lows.  That’s a trend they usually care about protecting.

2015-08-17 ES 60 0640continued for members


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