SPX

Monthly Results

Beginning in January 2015, pebblewriter.com resumed publishing potential turning points in SPX based on our harmonic, chart pattern, analog and technical analysis.  The data shown on this page reflect a theoretical, unleveraged portfolio where SPX is bought or shorted based on signals generated by that research.

Between March 2012 and July 2013, I had tallied monthly performance figures based also on intra-day calls for SPX.  I then took an 18-month break from daily posting to actively manage a hedge fund (discovering that I’m an infinitely better technical analyst than trader.)

In January 2015, I resumed daily posting that identified anticipated turning points.  This gradually evolved into specific, intraday long/short alerts, culminating in late June with the availability of memberships once again.

How well any individual member fares with our forecasts will depend on the type and effectiveness of trading they do.  Also, there’s typically a 2-3 minute lag between the time I recognize the need for a shift in stance, chart it and post it and when a member can receive and act on the information.  Sometimes, this will work in your favor; sometimes, it won’t.

Regardless, it’s my opinion that, whether you’re an active trader or a buy-and-hold investor, knowing potential turning points, periods of elevated danger, etc. is much better than crossing your fingers and hoping for the best.

If you’re an active trader and can capitalize on market timing, you will benefit from being able to earn positive returns when markets are selling off.  But, even large, long-term investors can benefit by improving their entry and exit points or knowing when to hedge.

For those who want to know how the watch works rather than simply what time it is, this site will educate you on how to evaluate and anticipate changes in the markets — changes that represent both opportunities and dangers.

For details on membership options, pricing, and promotions that we run from time to time, please click on the link below.

[MEMBERSHIP INFORMATION]

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Results are not necessarily indicative of those that current or future subscribers might achieve.  Your mileage may vary.  See full disclosures below.

2017 – present:

In 2017, we began to experience what I considered a meltup — infrequent and fleeting dips which usually disappeared intraday (BTFD.)  Trying to pinpoint these turning points resulted in too much intraday trading — to the point where it came to resemble scalping rather than swing trading.  

I shifted focus as and began tracking calls made in oil, gas, VIX, currencies and bonds as well as a few individual stock forecasts which I felt were suitable for swing trading and buy-and-hold strategies.

As far as SPX was concerned, once it backtested 2335 in April 2017 there was virtually no overhead resistance until 2703 — a 15.7% rally expected by the end of the year (which actually reached nearly 23%.)

Once SPX topped out in January, we saw renewed opportunities to swing trade. The 2017 and 2018 results are currently being tabulated and will be posted shortly.

2015 – 2016:

March 2012 – July 2013:

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Mar - Jun 2012
Jul - Sep 2012

Oct - Dec 2012


Jan - Feb 2013

Mar 2013

Apr 2013

May 2013

Jun 2013

Jul 2013

Jan 2015

Screen Shot 2015-07-29 at 2.07.06 PM

Feb 2015

Screen Shot 2015-07-29 at 2.10.52 PM

Mar 2015

Screen Shot 2015-07-29 at 2.12.48 PM

Apr 2015

Screen Shot 2015-07-29 at 2.14.26 PM

May 2015

Screen Shot 2015-07-29 at 2.15.43 PM

Jun 2015

Screen Shot 2015-07-29 at 2.16.59 PM

Jul 2015

Screen Shot 2015-08-01 at 4.19.43 PM

Aug 2015

Screen Shot 2015-09-02 at 7.28.14 PM

Sep 2015

2015-09 Trades (1) 2015-09 Trades (2)

Oct 2015

Oct 2015 trades

Nov 2015
Screen Shot 2015-12-01 at 3.21.17 PMScreen Shot 2015-12-01 at 3.21.47 PM
Dec 2015
Screen Shot 2016-01-04 at 7.44.05 AM Screen Shot 2016-01-04 at 7.44.32 AM
Jan 2016
Screen Shot 2016-02-03 at 4.25.58 PMScreen Shot 2016-02-03 at 4.27.07 PM
Feb 2016

Screen Shot 2016-03-04 at 9.17.48 AMScreen Shot 2016-03-04 at 9.18.13 AM

Mar 2016
Screen Shot 2016-06-09 at 8.28.56 PMScreen Shot 2016-06-09 at 8.30.27 PM

Apr 2016
Screen Shot 2016-05-14 at 10.45.17 PMScreen Shot 2016-05-14 at 10.45.38 PM

May 2016
Screen Shot 2016-06-09 at 8.20.02 PMScreen Shot 2016-06-09 at 8.21.03 PM
Jun 2016

2016-06 Daily Trade Data - I2016-06 Daily Trade Data - II

Jul 2016

2016-07-daily-trade-data

Aug 2016

2016-08-daily-trade-data

Sep 2016

2016-09-daily-trade-data

Oct 2016
2016-11-trade-data

Nov 2016

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Dec 2016

Jan 2017

Feb 2017

Mar 2017

 

    The Fine Print:
    1. Represents performance of a theoretical portfolio, where SPX is bought or shorted based on signals generated by my research.  Your mileage will vary.
    2. Assumes no leverage:  100% long, 100% short or 100% cash.
    3. Prices listed reflect the index at the time tops/bottoms are called and/or trades are made and are believed, but not guaranteed, to be accurate.  Dividends, transaction costs and any hedging costs are ignored.
    4. When SPX gaps up or down and we’ve adopted a new stance (i.e. weren’t long or short overnight), assumes entry at the opening price of the 2nd minute of trading.
    5. Results are since inception of pebblewriter.com on March 22, 2012.
    6. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.  See Disclosures and Use Agreement for important information.