Melting Up

The market has ignored the most obvious reversal points. Does that mean the waters are safe? For what warning signs should we be watching? We’ll take a look back at the patterns exhibited in the last few meltups. The first is that backtests happen.  The tricky part is the timing.  ES is currently about 44 … continue reading →

Great News!

Another day, another breathless Kudlow report on trade talk progress.  At the open, SPX will have risen almost 6% since the Phase One deal agreement was announced.Thanks to Kudlow’s and Trump’s frequent updates, USDJPY and CL’s continuing ramp jobs and the incessant assault on VIX, the market can do no wrong. Unfortunately for the bulls, … continue reading →

Dance Monkey Dance!

If you haven’t noticed something strange about the market’s price action lately, you probably haven’t been paying attention. Hint: it involves more than the market “shrugging off” bad news. This is the 9th session in a row where oil futures temporarily popped up above their 200-day moving average. Today is also the 10th out of … continue reading →

CPI: Nov 13, 2019

Today is off to an interesting start.  Following Trump’s call for negative interest rates and more grandstanding on China in New York yesterday, headline CPI came in hotter than expected but right in line with our forecast. As we’ve discussed, this is the result of oil and gas trending sideways in support of the upcoming … continue reading →

TINA and You

I saw this posted by a portfolio manager for a big state pension plan yesterday.  It struck me just how significantly the market has changed over the past 20 years.  Twenty years ago, stock buybacks were mostly illegal. They were considered manipulative. Today, they are commonplace — fueled largely by historically low interest rates, favorable … continue reading →

Because Appearances Matter

It’s not too surprising that there’s been a firm floor under oil and gas prices, given the upcoming Aramco IPO.  But, isn’t it funny how CL has popped above its SMA200 every single day this week, even in the wake of dismal inventory data? Just like it’s funny that ES, which pretty obviously should have … continue reading →

Here We Go Again

Another day, another after-hours ramp on trade deal rumours… This time, the news is out of China.  Last night’s news, however, was more convoluted than usual. China says that it has agreed with the US to remove tariffs in phases.  But, it also said that the deal would require that both countries simultaneously cancel tariffs … continue reading →

Another Bite of the AAPL

When the market hangs around an important level of resistance day after day, without breaking out or breaking down, it usually means something important. is in the works.  We’ve seen it in the S&P futures, loitering around the 2.618 Fib extension (of the 2007-2009 crash) at 2076.93.  We’ve seen it in VIX, bouncing repeatedly off … continue reading →