OPEC Day: Jun 22, 2018

Oil and gas futures are higher as we await word on the deal being hammered out in Vienna.The latest reports are that we’ll get a 1MM barrel per day increase.  But, Iran is resisting any increase and is threatening to veto any deal that doesn’t include condemnation of the US’ withdrawal from the nuclear deal. … continue reading →

Shades of 2011

We’re going to do sometime a little different today, and take a look back at 2011.  IMO, it’s an excellent analog for the current macro scene — particularly as it concerns inflation, interest rates, and oil and gas. For those who’d like a primer on the relationships between the above and equities, check out April’s … continue reading →

Misdirection

A quick glance at VIX tells you all you need to know about the past two weeks.  VIX has steadily gained since Jun 7.  But, most of the gains have come in the after-hours, elevating VIX to a level from which it can make a meaningful plunge during the next day’s trading session.As ES once … continue reading →

A Backtest, or More?

The Nikkei 225 offers great perspective on today’s selloff.  One of the most heavily manipulated indices on the planet (the BoJ buys stocks outright), it was knee deep in a steeply falling channel from its January highs until Apr 30, when it tagged the top of the channel and the .618 Fib level.  It was … continue reading →

Ciao Euro Growth

Draghi’s press conference is wrapping up, and the upshot is a weaker economy going forward — but, one strong enough to get along without QE.  2018 GDP was lowered from 2.4 to 2.1%, with 2019 and 2020 remaining unchanged at 1.9% and 1.7%.  2018 inflation estimates were increased from 1.4% to 1.7%, where Draghi expects … continue reading →

Inflation: Out of the Bag

What a wonderful time to be a FOMC member.  You could raise rates to stave off spiking inflation, and in the process: (1) choke off the stock market and real estate meltups, (2) put more pressure on overleveraged consumers and businesses (3) increase the budget deficit, and (4) throw emerging markets under the bus. Alternatively, … continue reading →