How Exposed is AAPL?

The longstanding rumor is that earnings will disappoint.  The more recent rumor is that the company will return huge amounts of money to shareholders, in the form of dividends, buybacks, etc — which has kept the stock on the rise all day and into the after-hours. I have no special insight or inside knowledge about … continue reading →

PCE Signals Stagflation

Core PCE came in hot this morning, tagging 2% (1.9% core.)  Expenditures rose 0.4% MoM, beating income.Needless to say, this falls short of the reality experienced by most Americans, who have seen a 15-20% YoY increase in gasoline prices with the seasonal summer bump still ahead. Will the 10Y take its cues from problematic inflation … continue reading →

That Nagging Feeling

Sometimes, markets can’t seem to get out of their own way.  They manage to make modest new highs, but on poor breadth or without breaking through resistance.  Like many investors, this sets my spidey senses to tingling. Most of the time, the markets grind higher anyway.  But, once in a while, the warning signs were … continue reading →

BoJ: The Waiting Game

That master of incredulity stretching himself, Haruhiko Kuroda, insists that Japan will reach 2% CPI sometime in the next five years. That was all the yen carry trade algos needed to hear.  USJDPY reached our initial upside target with ease, and is threatening to keep going. The futures, which have really struggled to climb on … continue reading →