FOMC: Gee, Thanks

Draghi says he’s prepared to do even more (is there anything more than “whatever it takes?”) and the German 10Y continues to slump further into negative territory. What did it accomplish, you might wonder?  While obviously not changing the prognosis that the ECB will soon be scooping up everything not nailed down, it did manage … continue reading →

Which One to Believe?

The good news for bulls is that ES/SPX broke through the latest straw man trend lines yesterday and have (more or less) backtested them.  The bad news is that the Dow remains stuck below double overhead resistance and several Dow components feature charts that are anything but bullish.continued for members… … continue reading →

Resistance: Futile?

Many of the stocks and indices I follow are sitting right at resistance, as is ES this morning.AAPL has reached our target at the top of its falling channel……DB is bumping up against the TL from Jan 2018… …and BA is within striking distance of the channel top at which it failed yesterday.With VIX having … continue reading →

Almost There

Conditions continue to look good for our current analog officially kicking off in 7 sessions.  VIX reversed (again) at the fan line off the May 9 highs and backtested an alternate channel bottom — nudging ES higher after a fairly ugly Wednesday.Oil and gas are closing in on our next downside targets — confounding the … continue reading →

Analog Watch: Jul 15, 2019

We’ve only done five analogs over the years.  One worked out spectacularly, three were fairly accurate, and one just plain fizzled. Ideally, an analog provides exceptionally accurate forecasts of a very significant move.  I think this could be one of those and that stocks are on the cusp of the biggest drop since the Great … continue reading →

Why Interest Rates Must Not Rise

In May 2014 many of us were shocked by a report that Ben Bernanke, who had recently departed the Fed, told a group of wealthy investors that he did “not expect the federal funds rate…to rise back to its long-term average of around 4%” in his lifetime. I remember feeling Bernanke’s statement represented both extraordinary … continue reading →