Cat and Mouse

VIX toyed with important support all day yesterday, keeping equities in the dark as to the next steps.As a result, ES spent the entire day continuing to dip below its SMA10 and SMA20 — even closing below a nice little trend line off its earlier highs as VIX refused to dive below the all-important yellow … continue reading →

Just What We Needed

So far, the bounce is going pretty much as expected.  VIX continues to tumble, USDJPY continues to rebound, and CL continues to sell off.  About the only surprise so far is that traders seem to have taken Dudley’s nonsensical hawkishness to heart. Given the hesitation USDJPY initially showed in reversing, however, it’s just what the … continue reading →

Fun While it Lasted

It was fun while it lasted.  After 23 straight sessions of VIX being suppressed below its long-term channel bottom, we finally got a taste of real volatility.  This morning, VIX is off over 15% and screaming back toward its recent lows in the absence of any further provocation from our Tweeter in Chief.Has the risk … continue reading →

Inflation Disappoints Again

SPX reached both of our downside targets yesterday, closing slightly below our 2440.81 target at 2438.17. It was a nice 50+ point gain from our short at 2490.10 on Tuesday [12:18 Update], and came reasonably close to Wednesday’s forecast.The slight overshoot did little damage to our rising red channel.  Bulls are no doubt more concerned … continue reading →

Fire and Fury

What a difference a day makes.  Yesterday started off with the usual VIX ramp that turned into yet another breakdown below support, sending SPX to new all-time highs.  Our Blusterer-in-Chief turned that around in a jiffy. Moments after we adopted a short position at 2490.10, he raised the rhetorical stakes with North Korea, promising fire … continue reading →

Did You Hear It?

Did you hear it?  Even on a day like yesterday, with ridiculously low volume, VIX was still whispering in algos’ ears, “look how much I’ve fallen….in fact, I just broke down…time to buy.” Never mind the fact that its regular overnight ramp job (when futures are easily propped up) was the only reason it had … continue reading →