One of the old adages that’s earned its keep over the years is that “markets take the stairs up and the elevator down.”  In other words, rallies come at a steady pace and corrections happen quickly, without notice. That observation might have applied during the hundreds of years leading up to present day.  But, for … continue reading →

Crypto Carnage

As the currency turmoil continues, it’s interesting to note that cryptocurrencies are having a worse go of it than EMs. Meanwhile, futures dipped enough overnight to finally backtest the SMA10.  They’ve since rebounded enough to backtest the broken red channel.  It remains to be seen whether SPX will join in and backtest its SMA10 and … continue reading →


ES/SPX failed to reach their 10-DMAs on Friday.  Given the long holiday weekend, those moving averages are now 5-6 points higher — leaving the twin targets even further apart. Interesting, isn’t it, that futures are off several points even in the face of huge overnight ramp jobs in oil and gas?  And, on that topic…it … continue reading →

A Backtest or More?

Today should shape up as a battle between holding a much-cherished round number (SPX 2900) and backtesting solid support (the January highs.) The futures are off about 5, with yesterday’s downside target of 2878.50-2881.95 still looking good — if SPX will relinquish 2900. Much will depend on the yen, which is strengthening in the midst … continue reading →

Inflection Points

DXY finally broke down a bit this morning, dropping through the purple TL from Jun 14.It’s not much, but it does open the door to the larger move we’ve been expecting for the past 2 months. The counter-argument:  EURUSD is approaching our next upside target – a backtest of the channel from which it broke … continue reading →

How Not to Manipulate Stock Prices

Sometimes you just can’t catch a break.  TSLA shares rose from 22 in 2012 to 387 in 2017 — helping drive Musk’s net worth to well over $20 billion.  But, the shares have since formed a triple top, failing to top 390 and coming perilously close to breaking down. This isn’t the first time Musk … continue reading →

The Waiting Game

The biggest headlines of the year yesterday, and the S&P 500 gave up one point. And, as the plot thickens this morning, futures are virtually flat — propped up by pure algo action as VIX continues to slump and USDJPY continues to bounce off our downside target. With Jackson Hole coming up, there is much … continue reading →