Who’s Propping up the Stock Market?

It was October 1989 and the stock market was in trouble. Two years after crashing 36% (including 20% in a single session) the S&P 500 had made a comeback and had climbed back to new all-time highs. But high inflation, slipping junk bond prices and failing S&Ls were in the headlines daily. On October 13, … continue reading →

We’ve Seen This Movie Before

I’ve seen one particular assessment over and over in the financial news this morning: The market’s rebound following Iran’s missile strikes last night was “surprising.” No, it is most certainly not surprising! Not even a little bit. Anyone who pays the least bit of attention to charts could have seen this coming a mile away. … continue reading →

Middle East Tensions Escalate

Not too surprisingly, the Iran problem didn’t go away over the weekend.  If anything, both sides are making threats that would significantly expand the conflict. What’s more, Trump’s unilateral actions have resulted in Iraq’s parliament calling for all US troops to withdraw from Iraq – without question an important win for Iran. Trump’s 2011 predictions … continue reading →

Oil Spikes on Iran War Worries

WTI futures spiked nearly 5% overnight in the wake of a US drone strike on Baghdad Airport which killed Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani.  It is a dangerous escalation in the US conflict with Iran which broadened when Trump alarmed US allies by pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal last May. We argued at … continue reading →

And Then?

With futures up 18 points and the S&P 500 closing 17.37 points below last week’s all-time highs, we should know pretty quickly which way the winds will blow today.  As is often the case, VIX has been driving the algos with shots across the bow as needed — three so far.  It’s enough to establish … continue reading →

Taking a Breather?

When Phase One was announced, stocks established a new steeply rising channel that aimed straight to 3300. When the channel was repeatedly tested, a new, steeper channel was established. Watching Peter Navarro this morning on CNBC, I hear that Phase One is really, truly, definitely, almost, pretty much sort of in the bag.  Or will … continue reading →

The Most Important Chart

One of the more interesting price cycles I’ve worked on over the years is that of oil. Oil and gas have proven to be lucrative trading vehicles, and their price movements have been extremely helpful in forecasting interest rates, currencies and inflation. The most fascinating cycle I’ve discovered is the periodic peaks and crashes in … continue reading →