Growth Without Inflation

Inflationless growth.  Sounds too good to be true, like “tastes great, less filling.” Seasonally-adjusted CPI came in at 0.2% MoM and 2.2% YoY.  Without seasonal adjustment, the MoM figure would have been 0.5% again.  And, without the 7.7% YoY increase in energy prices, the annual number would have been below 2%. Bottom line, the BLS … continue reading →

Countdown to CPI

This should be an interesting week.  ES came within 20 points of our next upside target on Friday.  And, with so many important economic data points ahead in the next few days, we should finally see our currency and bond targets hit as well.In my opinion, the most important data this week is Feb CPI … continue reading →

Whatever it Takes

Things continue on track, though as we discussed yesterday VIX has jumped the gun — reaching our Mar 14 target today, three sessions early.ES is closing in on our next upside target (though it’ll need help jumping the channel midline at 2761.)  And, SPX should have no trouble reaching today’s target at the purple channel … continue reading →

Looney Tunes

Cue the Looney Tunes music. Another day, another stick save.  Had the 40-pt drop in futures that the Cohn news precipitated occurred when ES was already down 24 points, we probably would have seen 2662 tagged or even exceeded. As “luck” would have it, the news hit after the markets closed — which is to … continue reading →

You, Again?

Fourteen out of the last 22 sessions, the eminis have reversed at or passed through the 2.24 extension at 2728.79.  There’s no question that it’s important.  The question is whether stocks are ready to push on through or need to gather more momentum first. Our analog [see: Analog Watch, Feb 6] has been very accurate … continue reading →

Analog Update: Mar 5, 2018

While direction and price targets are going well, timing continues to be a bit of a challenge — primarily due to equities’ hypersensitivity to VIX.  VIX reached our initial 25.65 target on Friday, at least a day early.SPX’s meltdown and recovery also came early, meaning today’s sell off could extend beyond what the futures currently … continue reading →

Does the Yield Curve Matter? A Closer Look

I called a top in SPX on May 20, 2015 [see: The Last Big Butterfly] because it was about to reach the 1.618 Fib extension at 2138 — our upside target from way back in 2012.  SPX peaked the following day and fell over 300 points before it was all over. What I didn’t notice … continue reading →