All Eyes on AAPL

Three months after AAPL’s “breakout,” it faces its first real test.  As we discussed in August [see: Engineering AAPL’s Breakout] the stock burst out of a long-term rising channel with the aid of several well-timed increases in its stock repurchase program. Now, it’s time to backtest that mediocre 12%-per-year channel it’s been in since 2010 … continue reading →

VIX’s Warning

The death cross is one of those tried and true technical indicators that often portends big drops.  When a stock’s 50-DMA drops below its 200-DMA, it tends to drop like a rock (unless it’s FB, which uses such crosses to time its buyback announcements.) I thought it’d be interesting to look at VIX, which has … continue reading →

What If?

You know the market is in trouble when USDJPY ramps in the hours before the open and futures tumble into the red anyways.If you’re wondering why the BoJ picked this particular moment for USDJPY to break out, look no further than the NKD.  After guiding NKD higher for over 10 years, it doesn’t seem likely … continue reading →

Coincidences and Consequences

It’s interesting how Khashoggi’s murder top-ticked oil and gas prices… …and, so soon after Trump’s latest demand that OPEC lower oil prices. I’m certainly not insinuating that Trump had anything to do with Khashoggi’s murder. But, OPEC ignored Trump’s Sep 20 demand.  Two weeks later, oil prices had spiked 10% higher.  Since Oct 3, the … continue reading →

Time to Panic?

I read another one of those tweets the other day stating that no one knows where the market is going. Fundamentals haven’t been a great guide lately.  So, it doesn’t bother me in the least when investing “experts” admit they don’t know where the market’s going.  Those guys, many of whom are clients, keep me … continue reading →