Update on Nikkei: Mar 23, 2017

The last time we focused on the Nikkei [see: The Nikkei, Yen and Oil: Joined at the Hip] it had bounced sharply following the US election.  Given the fundamental headwinds Japan faced at the time, the bounce seemed fairly preposterous. …the Nikkei 225…has soared 2,600 points in the face of: (1) the election of a protectionist US president, … continue reading →

Horseshoes and Hand Grenades

There’s an old expression that says “close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.”  So, we spent most of the day yesterday wondering whether the day’s 2336.45 lows were close enough to our long-held downside target of 2335.34.The tag was marred by premature reversals in oil and VIX.  Did the guys working the algos not get … continue reading →

A Long Time Coming

A month ago [see: Crossroads Ahead ] we targeted the 1.618 at 2335 as an attractive target for a pullback.  The only hitch was that SPX then broke out of the rising white channel it was in, making the backtest a little tricky.   In this case, patience paid off, as SPX is positioned to backtest the (repositioned) … continue reading →

Look No Further

If you’re looking for a reason for ES’ 12-pt rally off yesterday’s lows, look no further than the usual VIX dump and oil ramp.  Within a few minutes of each other, oil recovered above its SMA200 and VIX reversed off what was a promising (for bears) rally.Consequently, ES and SPX recovered back above their SMA10/20s … continue reading →

Is It Time?

One glance at the eminis chart tells you all you need to know about the past month.  Head & Shoulders Patterns used to be pretty reliable.  This one indicated a 50-pt drop last week — a whopping 2 1/2% sell off.  But, it was not allowed to happen.   Now, it’s the day after OPEX … continue reading →

Happy 5th Birthday!

Pebblewriter was officially born on May 2, 2011, but we started tracking performance and offering subscriptions on the new site on March 23, 2012.  Two thousand posts and 2.8 million page views later, we’re coming up on our 5th birthday.  Since we haven’t run any membership promotions in months, it’s time to do something special! … continue reading →

FOMC Day: Mar 15, 2017

On Feb 6 [see: The End Game] we were looking for CPI to reach 2.5% for January.   Going out on a limb (a 13.3% probability at the time) I also suggested that this report would prompt a FOMC rate increase. The January CPI numbers coming out on Feb 15, even if massaged extensively, are likely to show a pickup … continue reading →