Key Economic Data Ahead

This is an important week for economic data, leading off with Durable Goods this morning at 10am.  Following later in the week, we’ll get CPI, PPI, import/export prices, continuing claims and consumer sentiment — not to mention FOMC minutes. This morning, we’ll take a look at durable goods new orders – a pretty good indicator … continue reading →

Food for Thought

Despite the bounceback from last month’s dismal employment data, all of our targets remain the same. The only deviations at this time are USDJPY, which has broken out of a falling channel… …and VIX, which put a shot across the algos’ bows this morning in order to ensure the proper response from equities.  It has … continue reading →

Can TSLA Survive This Crash?

Last May we questioned whether TSLA could avoid a crash.  The answer came quickly, as TSLA bounced back above horizontal resistance a month later.  Since then, however, it’s been a constant battle — marked by multiple breakdowns and rescues (most of which landed Musk in hot water.) The latest bounce, however, pits the stock against … continue reading →

The Slope of Nope

As a chartist, I’m often struck by how similarly the stock market acts at important tops and bottoms.  By “important tops” I’m speaking of those which precede large corrections or even crashes.  So, with apologies to Tim Knight’s excellent Slope of Hope… In 2000, SPX retraced a Fibonacci 88.6% of its initial drop before falling … continue reading →

COMP’s Turn

Three sessions after SPX completed its Golden Cross, the NASDAQ Composite is set to join it. Stocks continue to benefit from algos keying off of VIX, which has reached our next downside target… …and, USDJPY, which threatened a breakout from the falling white channel. As a result, ES popped through the last Fib resistance standing … continue reading →

Is Resistance Futile?

Oil and gas have both now reached our upside targets. USDJPY is pressing up against the top of a falling channel. VIX is testing support that has been responsible for several declines over the past two months. Durable goods orders just came in well below expectations. What will it take to stop ES/SPX from pushing … continue reading →

Will It or Won’t It?

The biggest question in the charting world right now is whether the S&P 500 will complete a Golden Cross — where the 50-DMA crosses above the 200-DMA. Unless SPX falls to around 2600 by next week, it is inevitable.  But, what happens after that isn’t exactly written in stone. SPX experienced its evil twin, the … continue reading →

Under Pressure

I love it when a plan comes together.  From Pins and Needles on Feb 4… And, from this morning…This fits in nicely with our economic model and is helping to drive rates toward our next downside target.Futures jumped 40 points on the Feb 28 announcement of 2.6% Q4 GDP.  Do you suppose they’ll shed 40 … continue reading →