CPI Ticks Higher

Core CPI excludes the volatile food and energy component.  We’ve heard that expression countless times.  It’s intended to calm everybody down — inflation isn’t as bad as it seems if we back out rapidly rising prices in food and energy. The BLS is even conditioned to explain the monthly data in the same way every … continue reading →

Put Up or Shut Up

It’s now been almost a month since we posted our analog-based forecast [see: Analog Watch July 15.]  If it’s valid, we should see a sharp selloff over the next few days which ushers in 9-12 months of increased volatility and losses. From that post: Ideally, an analog provides exceptionally accurate forecasts of a very significant … continue reading →

My Favorite Thing

My favorite thing about analogs is that they provide a roadmap for rips and dips that would otherwise frustrate the hell out of you.  We went short near the top and have already reached our initial target. I know some members have done quite nicely over the past few days, but it’s not the 6.8% … continue reading →

A Great Start

Futures have been all over the map since yesterday’s close.  SPX bounced slightly below the initial downside target from our analog first mapped out on July 15 and confirmed on July 30 [see: Ringing the Bell] — but, well ahead of schedule thanks to Trump’s latest China trade salvo. The 3% drop from the top … continue reading →

That Escalated Quickly!

In the immortal words of Ron Burgundy, “that escalated quickly!” Sure, the algos weren’t happy with the phrase “mid-cycle adjustment.”  But, you can’t help wondering how many algos and carbon-based investors were disappointed that with 3.7% unemployment and 2.1% GDP growth the Fed saw the need to cut in the first place.Maybe the Fed knows … continue reading →