Two weeks ago, after Boeing’s second 737 Max 8 crashed, I suggested the most obvious outcome from a charting standpoint [see: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back.] Obviously, BA is reacting to the second crash of its key 737 Max 8. But, its chart already argued for a downturn before the latest tragedy.First order of … continue reading →
Looking at the latest housing starts data…this is not a recovery. This is a patient who was shocked back to life by QE but is slowly slipping into a coma. The rest of the data is just as depressing, including the rate of SF price growth which is pretty clearly rolling over.The algos have ignored … continue reading →
Friday’s onslaught easily reached our first downside target (two days late) and very nearly reached our second (two days early.)I’m continuing to work on the big picture forecast [ see: Macro Factor Cycles and Regime Shifts.] In the meantime, here are today’s charts and a reminder of our targets. continued for members… … continue reading →
TNX reached our 24.98 target yesterday, but ZN came up just a bit short of its 123’285 target. This morning’s action has remedied that, as ZN just reached 123’295 — the target we first charted last May [see: Bonds and Value.] As we discussed yesterday the delay in reaching these targets, while tiresome, has provided … continue reading →
In speaking with CNBC in the wake of the Fed’s decision to cave on any further rate hikes, Richard Fisher said what many of us have felt for years. “We created a one-way street…all of our markets are hooked on this opioid of cheap money. How do you wean them from that after all those … continue reading →
Some time ago, I noticed that CL’s (WTI light sweet crude oil futures) three important tops since 2008 were almost the same number of days apart. This cycle certainly caught my eye.After tugging on that thread, I found a similar situation regarding CL’s lows. The 2001-2009 cycle was only 31 days longer than the 2009-2016 … continue reading →
Pretty quiet here in the pre-market. Futures have been mostly flat for the past few hours after yesterday’s failed attempt to hold the 1.272.The best allegory I’ve seen this morning is AAPL, which has been riding its SMA5 200 every day since breaking out above our 178.46 target. Yesterday, just shy of its SMA200, it … continue reading →
Yesterday’s death cross in VIX is officially in the books (the yellow arrow.) So, it’s no surprise that ES added another 10 points in the after-hours.Look for it to backtest the 1.272 it just broke through (2845.11) as soon as the SMA5 200 arrives on the scene. There are potential pitfalls ahead, of course. The … continue reading →
This morning, VIX’s 50-DMA passed below its 200-DMA — a death cross. If it holds, this marks the end of the period following the golden cross on Nov 1. For the uninitiated, a death cross is typically bearish for VIX, bullish for stocks. We must use a qualifier because death and golden crosses in VIX … continue reading →
The call the President’s working group the Plunge Protection Team, presumably because it protects the market from plunging. It think they’ve got it wrong. What it really does is protect plunges in volatility that, in turn, trigger algos to buy stocks. The VIX smackdown that Mnuchin’s Plunge Protection Team unleashed on December 24 has now … continue reading →