JGBs Gone Wild

Lots of excitement in the currency markets this morning — particularly the yen.  The USDJPY plunged rather decisively to our nearest downside target… …after stories appeared in the financial press that the BoJ was embarking on a buying spree, offering to buy “an unlimited amount of bonds.”  Why would they do such a thing?  Yields … continue reading →

Fed Gets Trumped

It was going to happen sooner or later.  Real estate developers are all about leverage.  And, leverage is all about the cost of capital. The FOMC is trying to create some headroom for the next time they need to rescue the stock market economy — apparently not as important to Trump as are the midterm … continue reading →

Housing Starts’ Huge Miss

Housing starts collapsed 12.3% in June, the 4th worst report in the last 5 years.  Permits dropped 2.2%. Futures barely budged on the news……as the 4% GDP growth narrative continues to dominate the headlines (Kudlow takes the mic at Delivering Alpha) and algos continue to be well-supported by favorable currency moves……and, conveniently timed dips in … continue reading →

Powell’s Fed: Boxed In?

One of the most interesting charts to float across my desk this morning was this one from FactSet, citing currency factors and cost increases as companies’ top concerns on their Q2 earnings calls.With oil, gas and the dollar up significantly over the past several months, it’s not a huge surprise. Nor is it a surprise … continue reading →

CPI Day: Jul 12, 2018

We’ve been beating the inflation drum for months, wondering when the folks behind the curtain would finally pull the levers to reign in energy prices.  Yesterday was a good start, as gasoline and WTI futures were both off sharply. Ordinarily, we’d expect to see stocks suffer in tandem.  But, as we discussed yesterday morning: So … continue reading →