Fed Minutes: How Hawkish Are They?

Markets tend to moves higher on Fed minutes days, even if the news isn’t all that positive.  It’s all about convincing investors that the FOMC has their best interests at heart — that all they’re worried about is making sure that stocks continue to rally. Today’s session is slightly complicated, then, by ADP employment which came … continue reading →

PCE Tops 2%

It’s been a long time coming.  But, the Fed’s favored measure of inflation finally topped its long-stated target of 2%. Of course, they prefer the “core PCE” which excludes food and energy price changes.  Why?  It’s lower, and at 1.8%, puts less pressure on them to normalize rates.   Either one of them is preferable to the … continue reading →

Happy Brexit Day

Everybody’s wondering whether Brexit will matter. With futures flat and currencies seemingly in the spotlight, we’ll spend the day revisiting our forecast for various currency pairs. We’ll also take a look at oil and gas.  These are the last few days of the month. And, given that gas prices are up about 28% YoY, we’ll … continue reading →

Gold: Following the Yellow Brick Road

I’m not a gold bug.  I’ve always thought the price is pretty heavily manipulated (long before it hit the headlines) and I guess I’ve avoided it on principle.  Looking back at my forecasts over the past year or so, that was probably a mistake. Since our December 14, 2015 forecast, GC has gained about 19% … continue reading →

Betwixt and Between

SPX and ES managed to hold key trend lines and channels yesterday, bouncing from just short of our downside targets to exactly where we expected.  All it took was an 18.3% hammering of VIX — no problem for the Masters of the Universe (real subtle, guys!) But, there was no breakout.  There wasn’t even an overnight … continue reading →