VIX completed the first breakdown we discussed yesterday, but stopped short of dropping through the white channel midline. Thus, although the implications are bullish, equities have yet to actually break out.continued for members… … continue reading →
In considering central bankers’ “assistance” to markets, I’m reminded of the old fable about the scorpion and the turtle: A turtle was happily swimming along a river when a scorpion hailed it from the shore. The scorpion, being a very poor swimmer, asked the turtle to carry him on his back across a river. “Are … continue reading →
It’s happening again. The notes from gold bugs are starting to flood in, wondering whether this time is different, whether the breakout is real. Recall that our last update [June 7 Update on Gold] came tantalizingly close to a bullish call. If DXY falls through the midline of the purple channel (96.10) then, sure, GC … continue reading →
Another day, another V-shaped recovery. This one overshot our next downside target by 3 points, reversing at a nonsensical Fib level. The talking heads would have us believe that traders suddenly stopped caring about nuclear war and floods of biblical proportions. But, it was just another sudden collapse in VIX leading algos down the path … continue reading →
SPX should reach our next downside target today — even if it is two sessions late. DXY has tagged its next downside target. USDJPY is fast approaching its target. Oil even broke down as expected. All it took was a hurricane of historic proportions and the threat of global thermonuclear war. continued for members… … continue reading →
It’s been a dizzying drop for the dollar since falling through support last April. This morning, it reached our next downside target from last June [see: All About the Dollar.] Back then, DXY appeared likely to bounce sharply. But, the bounce was short-lived, and DXY has failed several subsequent tests along the way. Has it … continue reading →
Futures are up a few points on lower lows in VIX and a partial recovery in oil prices.Traders will no doubt be considering the repercussions of Harvey. The expected impact on gasoline production has sent RBOB higher by as much as 12.7% in the last four sessions. While, oil prices fell up to 1% overnight, … continue reading →
SPX dithered and dallied yesterday, but in the end tagged our downside target before the supportive forces of rising oil and falling VIX came to the rescue. Today, we’ll be watching for signs of policy changes from the brain trust gathered at Jackson Hole. Currencies, which have been active all week, are already responding. And, … continue reading →
Yesterday was an exercise in propping up equities until the close, which clearly pointed to a continuation of the slide. Thanks to oil’s pump and VIX’s dump overnight, however, the futures were able to break out of their funk and are now sporting a 6-pt gain going into the open. This leaves the downside from … continue reading →
Ordinarily, when a channel breaks down and is backtested, it means more downside. SPX nailed our backtest target yesterday. And, sure enough, the futures are currently off about 12 points.Yet, we’ve seen way too many instances over the last couple of years where a backtest overshoots and the broken channel is rejoined after, say, VIX … continue reading →