CPI: Nov 13, 2019

Today is off to an interesting start.  Following Trump’s call for negative interest rates and more grandstanding on China in New York yesterday, headline CPI came in hotter than expected but right in line with our forecast. As we’ve discussed, this is the result of oil and gas trending sideways in support of the upcoming … continue reading →

TINA and You

I saw this posted by a portfolio manager for a big state pension plan yesterday.  It struck me just how significantly the market has changed over the past 20 years.  Twenty years ago, stock buybacks were mostly illegal. They were considered manipulative. Today, they are commonplace — fueled largely by historically low interest rates, favorable … continue reading →

Because Appearances Matter

It’s not too surprising that there’s been a firm floor under oil and gas prices, given the upcoming Aramco IPO.  But, isn’t it funny how CL has popped above its SMA200 every single day this week, even in the wake of dismal inventory data? Just like it’s funny that ES, which pretty obviously should have … continue reading →

Here We Go Again

Another day, another after-hours ramp on trade deal rumours… This time, the news is out of China.  Last night’s news, however, was more convoluted than usual. China says that it has agreed with the US to remove tariffs in phases.  But, it also said that the deal would require that both countries simultaneously cancel tariffs … continue reading →

Another Bite of the AAPL

When the market hangs around an important level of resistance day after day, without breaking out or breaking down, it usually means something important. is in the works.  We’ve seen it in the S&P futures, loitering around the 2.618 Fib extension (of the 2007-2009 crash) at 2076.93.  We’ve seen it in VIX, bouncing repeatedly off … continue reading →

The Whisper Game

Yesterday delivered the initial stages of a potential downturn.  The after-hours action, again, threw it into question after — you guessed it — more whispers of progress on the trade front.Naturally, we also saw more algo-baiting nonsense in VIX, USDJPY and crude.The record books will reflect that the market continues to hit new all-time highs.  … continue reading →

Not Without a Fight

This rally isn’t going down without a fight.  The better than expected jobs report is this morning’s catalyst, sending S&P futures 13 points higher to break out of the little channel from which they broke down yesterday. Yes, it’s all very confusing – especially since the Fed just cut rates based on what is ostensibly … continue reading →

Falling Into Place

The pieces are falling into place for a downturn.  We begin with USDJPY, which popped above its SMA200 but failed to make a new cycle high in the wake of yesterday’s FOMC decision. It’s on its way to our 107.88 target. But, if the latest rising channel breaks down, there is much greater downside potential.  … continue reading →