Wishing everyone a very, Merry Christmas and a New Year of peace and prosperity. … continue reading →
The fourth of December’s five gasoline price readings hit EIA’s website yesterday. The average stands at 2.47, 9.1% above 2018’s December reading. Unless another large component of CPI takes a nosedive this month, CPI could top 2.3 or even 2.5%. This is a level not seen since Oct 2018 (the shaded area below) when the … continue reading →
Traders have disappeared from sight this morning. Volume is about as low as it could be, despite a big miss (which didn’t even make the front page of CNBC.com) in Durable Goods new orders: -2.0% vs +1.2% expected. YoY, the drop was 5.7%, the worst since Jul 2016. Futures plunged all of 4 points which, … continue reading →
One of the market’s favorite tricks is to close right below resistance and blow through it the following morning on the “strength” of the overnight ramp in the futures. SPX came within 0.67 of our next upside target yesterday, suggesting a potential downturn, but will blow right through it on the open. This morning’s ramp … continue reading →
No, I’m not talking about Philly Fed Index, which at 0.3 versus 8.0 expected and 10.4 prior, is really stinking up the joint. instead, I’m talking about the 2s10s breakout which, as we’ve discussed countless times in the past, spells serious trouble for equity markets. This is exactly the scenario we discussed earlier this week … continue reading →
All the bullish factors which have kept stocks aloft the past two sessions are still going at it. Hence, the futures’ snoozefest even as Trump is about to be impeached.The only potential fly in the ointment remains oil and gas, which have reached an important decision point. continued for members… … continue reading →
I spend a lot of time and energy trying to spot potential downturns. I think the average buy-and-hold investor needs to know when downside risk is elevated and when events occur that could trigger a substantial drop. Even when things are apparently going well, I always post support levels just in case. While there’s a … continue reading →
The first is that VIX has again been hammered below a trend line dating back to Nov 2017. The algos are all over this and futures have soared 17 points. Total capitulation, at least for the time being.The second is that gas prices remain stubbornly high – signaling a coming spike in inflation unless prices … continue reading →
Remember the Oval Office celebration for the Phase One “deal” on Oct 11? [see: Good…Easy to Win.] Apparently being impeached turns up the heat a bit, because Trump now insists we’re really, really close to the deal that was ostensibly reached two months (and 240 SPX points) ago. Unfortunately, it takes two to tango. From … continue reading →
Another overnight ramp job that’s fading as the open approaches. And, surprise! SMA10s are threatening to roll over. continued for members… … continue reading →