The 46-pt rally off our downside target on the 18th (2352.72 vs 2354.15) has left SPX with some interesting options. More importantly, it makes an important statement about shifting algo influences — leading to some (IMO) mistaken notions regarding the FOMC’s next steps.While the USD bounced nicely where expected, the fireworks are far from over … continue reading →
Yesterday’s daily post’s title said it all: timing is everything. Yet, I had no idea the gratification would be so instant when I posted the recommendation to short oil at 9:35AM. CL is at or very close to the top of a long-term channel that could put an end to any further escapades… The SMA100 … continue reading →
Had the disappointing OPEC summit results been announced during market hours yesterday, we might not have seen a 2.8% ramp in WTI futures from Tuesday’s lows. Together with the ongoing meltdown in VIX, this was enough to push S&P500 futures to new all-time highs.But timing, as they say, is everything. With a 7-pt ramp in … continue reading →
Traders around the world are breathing a sigh of relief, this morning, after the market narrowly averted a disaster yesterday. The day started normally enough, with a gap higher on an 11.4% plunge in new home sales. But, after gaining about 7 points, SPX started slipping. At 12:09, it began what can only be described … continue reading →
Not even the threat of selling off half the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been able to dent CL’s algo-inspiring price action. With help from VIX, it has been able to squeeze another few points out of the futures, which are currently up 4 points. Our next upside target is just overhead. Will we get the … continue reading →
Futures are up about 4 points on another CL ramp and VIX dump this morning. Meanwhile, EURUSD and DX have both tagged our targets from earlier in the month. continued for members… … continue reading →
It depends. Do you feel safe with a faltering ramp in WTI and slump in VIX holding back the selling pressure generated by a falling dollar complex? SPX made a nice recovery yesterday, setting up some potentially bullish patterns but failing to follow through on them. Some of those patterns have been under assault overnight, … continue reading →
Back on April 25, I posted “How Broken is the Market?” and included the following VIX graphs. The first showed a long-term channel (below, in yellow) the bottom of which was occasionally tagged in times of extreme complacency. Each instance was followed by a correction.I contrasted it with a chart of the same channel which, … continue reading →
As DXY closes in on our next downside target, it seems like a good time to check in on USDJPY. In our last major update [see: April 3 Update on USDJPY] I tried to reconcile two slightly incompatible targets: the .618 Fib at 107.86 and the SMA200 (then) at 108.41. There was a third potential … continue reading →
In our March 28 update on gold [see: Follow the Yellow Brick Road] I identified several upside targets that would be in play if GC was able to top its SMA200 — the first being the .618 Fibonacci retracement at 1280.80. I reiterated it on April 11 [see: Price Alert on Gold] as GC spiked … continue reading →