Many of our downside targets were hit on Friday, including SPX, ES, COMP, RUT and DXY. As we wrote last Thursday [see: US Dollar – Time’s Up]: …ES has tepid support at 2665.27 and 2635.29 and SPX way down at 2612.97, followed by the .146 at 2582.36. Note the SMA200 is up to that level … continue reading →
For a moment, at least, markets were treated to another taste of reality: rates at an acceptable level, the US dollar reacting accordingly, the USDJPY tumbling normally, VIX not being hammered into submission, and oil prices reflecting fundamentals. Algos, which have grown accustomed to generous support from all the above, simply reacted as they should … continue reading →
Yesterday, we asked in the lead-up to the FOMC announcement and presser: Is there [a Fed game plan] which can keep inflation high enough (but, not too high), prop up the US dollar, keep interest rates under control, keep the market elevated and actually improve the economy? Not likely. Today, we have a definitive answer: … continue reading →
All eyes are on the FOMC’s upcoming rate announcement and press conference today. The slumping yield curve, buoyant 10-yr and lethargic dollar are testament to investors’ angst over the Fed’s game plan. Is there one which can keep inflation high enough (but, not too high), prop up the US dollar, keep interest rates under control, … continue reading →
Facebook is only 5.5% of the Nasdaq Composite (COMP), but yesterday’s plunge [see: Facebook Flops] was a good reminder to update our outlook. In our last update [see: Nov 6, 2017 Update] we identified 7619.37 as our next upside target. At this point, it’s pushing into the top quadrant of the rising white channel where … continue reading →
Everyone’s asking about Facebook, today. The stock, off as much as 8% earlier, is currently down 6.5%. It has the dubious honor of leading the FAANG stocks on a pretty rough day. The last time I devoted a post to FB was over five years ago on Jan 16, 2013 [see: Should We “Like” Facebook?] … continue reading →
Stocks are on track, progressing nicely toward our downside targets. Keep an eye on VIX this morning, as it’s threatening a breakout.The yield curve continues to flash a warning sign as per our model [see: Yield Curve, a Closer Look.] continued for members… … continue reading →
Anyone who studies factors is well aware of the impact the yen carry trade, VIX and oil prices have had on equities. While VIX did a spectacular job of igniting algos once USDJPY ran out of upside, it blew up spectacularly in January and February. Since then, oil (taking turns with VIX and USDJPY) has … continue reading →
The analog we’ve been following since Feb 6 [see: Analog Watch] has proven pretty accurate in terms of prices, but has been off by a day or two a few times. Yesterday was another potentially important deviation. SPX opened higher, but fell steadily throughout the day — retreating, as expected, to the channel midline where … continue reading →
In our analog from Feb 6, today was slated as the day that VIX collapses sharply in order to get SPX just a little higher before a pause. But, as we noted last week, VIX broke down 6 days early and hasn’t as much firepower left. And, stocks have run into resistance so strong that … continue reading →