Dangerous Waters

UPDATE:  9:30 AM PDT Despite generally better than expected economic and earnings news this morning, we formed most of a Head and Shoulders pattern in the futures prior to the cash market opening.  I decided to wait and see how it played out before scaling back my shorts.  We have since completed it, and a … continue reading →

Which Way the Dollar?

I’ve been watching the dollar’s patterns for months, and yesterday we broke out of a falling wedge that’s been in the works for ages. We’ve made many attempts before, but back in late April we started forming a rising channel that’s been guiding us directly to this spot. With the weakness in the Euro and … continue reading →

The Deathly Hallows

In Harry Potter, these are the three magical objects which make their owner a master of death. Tonight, we’ll look at three technical indicators that, while they may not grant immortality, will hopefully guide us safely through a dangerous market. (1)  Our harmonics patterns are working out exactly as expected.  As we forecast in Patterns, … continue reading →

Intra-day: July 11, 2011

ORIGINAL POST:  8:35AM PDT Watching the bearish Bat Pattern unfold, with Fib targets based on the DA measurement: .618   — 1295 1.272 — 1231 1.618 — 1197                                           Bearish Bat Pattern And, for those who have been following my 2011 = 2007 posts, today is putting in a bid as a candidate … continue reading →

She’s Come Undone

While backtesting the trend line from the Mar ’09 lows, the market did a little throw-over last week — exceeding the resistance by 14 points on Thursday, but giving it all back on Friday.  As we discussed in Confidence Fairies and Snowballs, this throw-over was a function of the government’s attempt to intervene in the … continue reading →

Then and Now

Anyone considering jumping on the bullish bandwagon should look carefully at the charts below. I’ve drawn in 2-standard deviation regression channels.  You might notice that the only key difference between the 2007 and the 2011 charts is that in 2007, the final push rises to the midline, or zero channel.  At today’s top, and I … continue reading →