USD/JPY: How Low Can it Go?

Whether you’re Toyota or an investor in distressed Japanese debt, the USD/JPY relationship has rocked your world over the past few years.  I’m no expert on the Japanese economy, but I find the Yen’s chart patterns pretty straight-forward.  First, the view from 35,000 feet: Weekly since 1996 The most prominent features are the falling channel … continue reading →

2011 v 2008: Day 125

UPDATE:  4:00 PM Heading off for the weekend and probably won’t get to post.  One last thought… in looking at the rising wedge we’re in, the apex seems to be around 1340-1350.  Wedges can and do expand (as this one has, many times).  But, breakouts typically occur around the .66 mark, which in this case … continue reading →

Housing: More of the Same

Again, ignore the headlines.  The numbers that really matters are ytd sales (without a seasonal adjustment) and median sales price.  Here, without the glitzy graphics or Census Dept spin, is the unvarnished truth.                                      US      Northeast   Midwest    South     West 2011 v 2010 ytd         -7.9%      -29.7%       -9.7%      -4.1%     -6.1%percent change inunits sold Median price: … continue reading →