She’s Come Undone

While backtesting the trend line from the Mar ’09 lows, the market did a little throw-over last week — exceeding the resistance by 14 points on Thursday, but giving it all back on Friday.  As we discussed in Confidence Fairies and Snowballs, this throw-over was a function of the government’s attempt to intervene in the … continue reading →

Then and Now

Anyone considering jumping on the bullish bandwagon should look carefully at the charts below. I’ve drawn in 2-standard deviation regression channels.  You might notice that the only key difference between the 2007 and the 2011 charts is that in 2007, the final push rises to the midline, or zero channel.  At today’s top, and I … continue reading →

Heard the Good News?

According to the Washington Post, Obama has thrown the sick and the elderly under the balance-the-frickin-budget bus.  At least, that’s how some will paint it.  Others will assert that Boehner has abandoned his peeps (the rich) in order to reach an unacceptable compromise. As always, reality is somewhere in the middle (and it’s far from … continue reading →

Crabs on an Overbought Tin Roof

Today’s action was a mix of misdirection that would make Hitchcock proud.  We were down 10 points early, locked in a channel aimed squarely at 1300.  But, we quickly rebounded and the channel morphed into a descending broadening pattern.  Then, that pattern started tracing out a little inverse head and shoulders pattern that promised a … continue reading →

Intra-day: July 6, 2011

ORIGINAL ENTRY: A nice entry point here at the top of the channel that’s carving out on the 5 minute chart.  At 1339 now, I believe we’ll close below 1330. UPDATE:  10:35 AM PDT With the move up to 1340, the channel morphed into a descending broadening formation, which can break out in either direction. … continue reading →

We’ve Got Crabs

Back on June 27th, with SPX at1279, I suggested an upside target of 1322 [Patterns, Patterns and More Patterns.]  At that price, I noted, we would have completed a bearish Crab Pattern at the 3.14 extension of the BC leg. At the recent high of 1341, we’ve completed a nearly perfectly formed Crab Pattern at … continue reading →

Be Careful What You Wish For

With all the (justifiable) recriminations aimed at rating agencies post the last crash, it’s more than a little ironic that they’re now being criticized for doing what we asked of them —  telling the truth. In the past 24 hours, two huge bombshells.  First, Greece is no longer “fixed.”  According to S&P;, the restructuring, even … continue reading →

Final Destination

Friday’s close at just shy of 1340 was purely a function of the way we got there and does not represent a breakdown of the similarities with 2007’s top.  There.  Got that out of my system. Am I as confident as that makes me sound?  Ask me after Tuesday’s close.  I’ve spent considerable time this … continue reading →