One Step Forward, Two Steps Back

While January’s retail sales saw a modest rebound (+0.2% MoM), December’s were revised downward from -1.2% to -1.6%. Futures bumped slightly higher, presumably because a slowing economy protects the market from Fed tightening.  In reality, it was driven by continuing VIX algo-signalling. With key DJIA component Boeing off sharply in the pre-market, today could be … continue reading →


An extremely disappointing payrolls report put February new hires at 20K.  I had to look twice, certain that a digit had been left out.To make matters worse, hourly earnings spiked 3.4% YoY, far in excess of what all the Goldilocks models suggested. It should be entertaining to see how Kudlow et al. spin this one. … continue reading →

Not So Glitchy

The latest dismal economic news — which the market is ignoring in favor of unsubstantiated rumors of an imminent trade deal with China — is real personal spending which dropped 0.6% in December to a 10-year low.  So much for Mr. Kudlow’s retail sales “glitch.” Futures, of course, are much more interested in the latest … continue reading →

Powell: Day 2 on the Hot Seat

Powell is likely to run into more aggressive testimony in his second day of congressional testimony.  Few House members rake in campaign contributions anywhere near as large as the average senator. Markets are generally quiet, especially after all the intraday damage control seen yesterday.  If he should stumble, of course, there’s a lot of dead … continue reading →