It was over five months ago that I first suggested our current analog [see: A New Analog Aug 3, 2016.]. It was unlike many of the past ones in that it suggested a tortured path to higher prices. As of yesterday, we were within 1% of our upside target, with today being labeled a likely high.
The most notable development overnight was that USDJPY finally broke down. To paraphrase Ron Burgundy, this is kind of a big deal. After a month-long very steep post-election ramp job, and another month of less-steep ramping, this is a trend break that shouldn’t be ignored. Will we get another gasp higher as our analog allows, or is the party finally over?
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