Oil: Center Stage

A reminder: I’m traveling today and won’t be able to update charts intraday.  So, I’ll leave you with a few key charts worth keeping an eye on.

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Yesterday saw SPX tag two more of our upside targets. The remaining targets from yesterday’s update remain unchanged.  If we get a backtest of any magnitude, it should be to the gray channel midline somewhere between 2071.20 and 2073.70 (depending on when.)2016-04-14 SPX 5 0629USDJPY, having dragged SPX out of its downtrend, has fallen back to its more reasonable red channel.  Unless CL offsets by remaining above its SMA200, USDJPY might be sending the all-clear for the backtest mentioned above.

2016-04-14 USDJPY v ES 5 0615DX is certainly ready for at least a small backtest to let its moving averages catch up, while another post-OPEX leg lower remains my leading scenario.  2016-04-14 DX 60 0639CL is digging its heels in, having pushed above and backtested the 200-day moving average (40.94) in advance of this weekend’s big oil summit in Doha — which is almost certain to disappoint (but, certainly not until after OPEX.)

Check out this nice piece by Bloomberg on the players’ strategy to put a floor under prices [aka price manipulation] at current levels [aka the SMA200.]    If it holds, it opens up the .786 and .886 at 45.6 and 48.06 respectively.  2016-04-14 CL v ES 15 0615The past week or so has seen repetitive ramp jobs starting around 3am, just in time to get “markets” nice and frothy by the time they open and, not so coincidentally, continuing until about the time they close.2016-04-14 CL v ES 5 0615This being OPEX week, look for more of the same.



Oil: Center Stage — 1 Comment

  1. cant trade without u pebble. especially when the spy doesnt pull back for nothing much really like to wait to trade on your take of things and if that doesnt happen then no trading