It’s been a while since our last look at the big picture in NDX. I’ve focused more on broader indices such as SPX, RUT and NYA. And, NDX has been subject to excesses, thanks to the impact its largest component — AAPL — has on its performance.
But, over the past several months, it’s been one of the more predictable indices. In our Apr 1 forecast, I wrote that its small rising wedge had run out of steam and it was due to reverse and test the lower bound of its larger wedge.
In the May 1 update, I put a number (2438) on the downside target, revising it on May 8 2446 to reflect the just-completed H&S pattern. Sure enough, on June 4 it bottomed at 2443.92 to tag the lower bound of the big wedge.
Since then, NDX has reached the Fibonacci .786 of one pattern and the .886 of another. Is this another important turning point?
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