As vicious as yesterday’s reversal seemed, it was only a fraction of size of the three previous downturns.
- -4.4% over six sessions in late December 2012
- -3.1% over four sessions in February
- -3.9% over five sessions in April 2013
SPX should catch up with the futures this morning, reaching the purple midline around 1632-1633. We should get a bounce there, but we’ll wait for a clear sign of a reversal first.
The bounces on the way down were only about 5 points each. Be careful about jumping on just any reversal. Make sure there’s a compelling chart pattern or Fib level.
I shorted yesterday at 1687, which was as nice a setup as you could ever hope for. We tried shorting the day before at 1674 [see: If It’s Tuesday], which was the 2.618 Fib extension of the 1422-1266 decline from Mar-Jun 2012 — a big, beautiful Crab Pattern.
But, Bernanke’s remarks sent SPX spiking higher and we were stopped out at 1475. This opened up the other 2.618 extension we’d been watching: the one established by the 1474-1343 decline from Sep-Nov 2012 at 1686.73. The chart looked like this:
So, we had the other 2.618 right at the top of the red channel — where it intersected with yet another 2.618. It was a high percentage opportunity that worked out very nicely — about 3% on the day, and probably 5%+ on the week.
The only hard part is watching the news at the end of the day — the talking heads description of the reversal: “all of a sudden, without warning, etc. etc…” Not one of them discussed the red channel or the Crab Pattern!
It also helped that DX tagged our downside target, and EURUSD tagged our upside target at the same time.
UPDATE: 10:05 AM
I’m going to assume that the channel midline has been restablished a little higher as a result of yesterday’s throwover and is more like 1635. I’ll update that in a few…
Taking a long position here at 1640 for what should be a decent bounce.
Not quite as much as I expected, but good enough. I’ll close the interim long position and revert to full short.
UPDATE: 10:53 AM
BTW, I’m not going to tweet these intra-day bounces of 5-10 points. It’s too distracting for me, and anyone playing them should be at their computer all day, not trying to trade while performing an appendectomy, landing a 787 or even teeing off at Cypress.
UPDATE: 11:40 AM
At this rate, SPX is aiming at 1653.16 as the extent of this bounce. It’s a .886 retrace of the move down from 1655 (red pattern) and almost .382 of the drop from 1687.
UPDATE: 12:12 PM
The nice thing about chart patterns and harmonics is they give you discreet measures of correctness. If we change sides because the market has arrived at a point where it should reverse, but it doesn‘t reverse, then we know we should be back on the other side. In other words, the market usually tells us whether or not we’re on the right path.
Since the little white channel hasn’t broken down, and it’s always dicey to assume a channel is correct so early on, we’ll watch for signs of this latest call being premature. Like I said before, it’s not much of a retracement. There are plenty of higher targets that are quite appealing for a bounce.
The move won’t be confirmed without a drop through the channel bottom — currently around 1450.
While we’re waiting to see, we’ll take a look at where SPX goes next. First likely stop: 1637.63. But, there’s a hitch that could spell 1663 instead.
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