If the SPX slide stops around here (ideally 1263), we would have a butterfly pattern (since the open, visible on the 5 minute) nestled inside another butterfly (also on 5 minute, since Friday’s low) nestled inside a crab (since 4/18 on the daily), nestled inside yet another crab (since 3/16 on daily.) Think of them as four very bullish Russian nesting dolls, collectively indicating an upside of 1329 or better.
Incidentally, 1329 is the midline of our 2-std dev regression channel we’ve been in for the past 4 months. If this is the top, we always retrace to the midline after the 2nd touch of the negative 2 std dev line one last time before the plunge. http://pebblewriter.blogspot.c…
Not saying it has to happen… but VIX seems to be contained within the same channel it’s been in since April, and whatever the wave count, this isn’t feeling like a meltdown to me — just the rebound camp getting a little ahead of itself this morning.
Here are the patterns. The butterfly patterns are nestled at the end of the CD leg in the lower right corner.
|Two Crab Patterns|
|Two Butterfly Patterns|