Just Another Day?

FOMC Flameout!

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NOTE:  Thanks to all who submitted an entry in our contest to guess today’s SPX close.  The guesses ranged from 1900 to 2137.02 — a pretty wide range!  I’ll announce the winner in this space right after the close.

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Congratulations to our grand prize winner Aaron Z. of Colorado.  Aaron’s estimate of 2071 was only 1.89 away from the actual close.  Great job, Aaron!  Congratulations also to runners up Natasha S. at at 2070.28 and Scott B. at 2080.51!


If this were any other day, I’d say TPTB have the “markets” set up for a nice spike.  USDJPY has been pumped up over the SMA100 and SMA200 (now virtually on top of one another)…2015-12-16 USDJPY 60 0605… CL has bounced sharply off the falling red channel bottom…2015-12-16 CL 60 0605… and, ES was ramped 12 points higher overnight.2015-12-16 ES 60 0605But, as we know, it’s not just another day.  It’s the day the Fed gets to demonstrate just how wise they are, how much control they have over the vagaries of the markets.  After all, they’ve tripled the S&P 500 over the past six years.  We should trust them to triple it again, and again, and again.

The only problem is that the mechanism that produced all those gains is getting very long in the tooth.  Though interest rates are a component, the mechanism that really matters is still the yen carry trade.2015-12-16 USDJPY v SPX big daily 0605The USDJPY has gone nowhere over the past year since arriving at current levels.  Hence, stocks have gone nowhere — particularly since completing the Big Butterfly Pattern in May.  At the time, we noted it was the last big Butterfly, and it ushered in a nice sell-off as we expected.

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