Here Comes the Test

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Much has happened since our bottom call on Feb 11.  USDJPY shot up from 110.97 to 114.87 in 4 sessions.  CL spiked 31% in 6.  And, SPX tacked on 6.7%, climbing back on top of some key overhead resistance.

But, the underpinnings of the rally are crumbling.  USDJPY has lost nearly 88.8% of its gains — calling the yen carry trades health into serious question.2016-02-24 USDJPY 30 0600CL — almost half of its (despite the rumors which sent it soaring being disproved.)  For its part, SPX has dropped a mere 20% — propped up primarily by intra-day CL and NKD ramping.

As the algo drivers continue to tumble, we can expect SPX to at least test our downside target floated earlier this week, and possibly drop through it.

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