Happy Holidays

Our membership promotion will wrap up in another couple of days.  If you’re tired of taking cues from the perpetually bullish talking heads, this is a great time to take the plunge.  Volatility is high, and we’re racking up some great results [see: HERE.]

Pebblewriter.com has provided uncannily accurate market guidance since its first post on May 2, 2011 where we noted a top was close (May 2 was the top) to its latest top call on May 19, 2015 [we were one day early, see: The Last Big Butterfly.]

We’re currently offering Charter Annual memberships for about half-off the usual price.  With a Charter Annual membership, your rate is guaranteed never to increase for as long as you’re a member.  For more details and to sign up now, CLICK HERE.

*  *  *  *  *

Feb 15:

If there’s one thing TPTB enjoy, it’s the opportunity to move markets over a long holiday weekend.  Last Thursday, USDJPY and CL all plunged to key levels of support.  As I wrote then [see: USDJPY Finally Relents]:

This morning, the plunge finally reached significant support: the .500 Fib and the bottom of the rising purple channel from 2011.  USDJPY should bounce here.  If you’re a bull, it must bounce here.  The only question: is it too late?

Start out short, but look for an entry point there — keeping an eye on CL, USDJPY and NKD for signs of a turn.  If it’s to happen, it’ll be because all three are screaming higher.

We closed the short and reverted to a long position at SPX 1825.01, assuming that TPTB would do what it took to support USDJPY and CL and, thus, keep the yen carry trade from completely imploding.

Bottom line, they did exactly that.  Since then, USDJPY has recovered almost 3%…2016-02-15 USDJPY 60 0604  …CL has soared about 15%…2016-02-15 CL 60 0604…and ES has bounced nearly 5%.2016-02-15 ES 60 0604SPX easily reached our initial bounce target on Friday, closing at 1864.37.

Assuming USDJPY breaks out of its falling channel (it’s a minor thing to ask, Haruhiko) then SPX should test the falling white channel midline at 1859-1863 (depending on when.)

With another 24 hours or so to make things right, can SPX break through significant overhead resistance?  We’ll see.

I’m going back to my vacation and will post another brief update in the morning. I’ll be back to regular hours on Wednesday.

UPDATE:  Feb 16, 2016

ES has given up some of its gains — but, only enough to backtest the broken SMA20.

continued for members


Sorry, this content is for members only.

Click here to get access.


Already a member? Login below

Remember me (for 2 weeks)

Forgot Password