Happy Birthday to Us

Today marks one year since pebblewriter.com opened its cyber doors for business.  Over that year, I’ve written 351 posts with around 526,500 words (War and Peace has 560,000) which is the equivalent of about 2,100 double-spaced pages.  I’ve saved 5,976 charts (1.05 GB) of the 9,375 constructed. ThinkorSwim is thinking about naming a server after me for the thousands of drawing sets I’ve saved.

There have been some great calls and some not so great calls.  I almost always get the direction, price or timing right.  Once in a while, I get all three (I’m usually happy with two out of three.)  And, once in a while, I really stink up the joint.  My goal is to get most of the points most of the time, which we’ve done reasonably well.

SPX major moves since Mar 22, 2012:  715 points (1422 down to 1266, 1266 up to 1474, 1474 down to 1343, 1343 up to 1563.)  It’s worth about 9.91% plus dividends for someone who bought and held.  Total pebblewriter.com results:  1,573 points for 113% (thru Feb 28.)

I had no idea when I first started down this path where it would lead. In 30 years of following the markets, I never thought it possible to time the daily ups and downs, much less the major moves.  Then, I stumbled across Harmonics and came up with the idea of combining them with Chart Patterns and technical analysis and… here we are!

It’s been a lot of hard work, but a lot of fun, too. I’m excited about the managed fund in the works and am working hard to make it a reality. Thanks to all of you who have written to express your interest.  I will have some updates for you next week.

And, thanks to all those who have completed their questionnaires already.  If you haven’t, please take the time this weekend.  As a 1 year-old, we have plenty of room to improve.  I know about some of the needed improvements, but I’m picking up a lot of great ideas from perusing your comments.

Finally, this site wouldn’t exist without you and your support of my research.  To all who have been a part of the journey, thank you.

Michael

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ORIGINAL POST: 9:35 EDT

SPX has bounced back nicely and is facing its first important test of the day here at the intersection of the top of the falling channel formed yesterday and the rising purple channel .25.  We remain long from Wednesday.

Don’t be surprised if we see some hesitation here.  Bulls obviously need to see a break out in order to fulfill the promise of the purple Crab Pattern.  Bears would just as soon see the rally fail here and now.

As I’ve detailed already, there are many reasons for the market to take a big ol’ dump.  SPX has barely reacted since completing several large, important Harmonic Patterns.  But, it seems to be positioning itself for a run at 1576.

Either way, I’m fairly certain we’re in for lots of volatility.  I’d advise anyone with a weak stomach or without the ability to closely monitor their portfolio to consider tight stops and/or hedging.

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