Is this really, as Trump maintains, the “greatest economy ever?” Hardly. Sure, changes in the way that inflation and employment data are calculated/defined have allowed the government to report generally positive results. But, one needn’t dig far beneath the surface to realize that they not only don’t represent the real economy; they’re downright deceptive.
Because inflation data is baked into so much other economic data, it renders the whole lot of it suspect — not to mention inconvenient. Because inflation is vastly understated, some of the barometers that argue for dovish monetary policy are sending false messages. And, because unemployment is vastly understated, some of the barometers that argue for hawkish policy are sending false messages.
April advanced retail sales figures came in ugly.
The rest of the recent data wasn’t much better.The market isn’t taking it well. S&P 500 futures are extending their losses and closing in on our key SMA200 target from Apr 30 [see: FOMC Endgame.]continued for members…
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