Food for Thought

Despite the bounceback from last month’s dismal employment data, all of our targets remain the same. The only deviations at this time are USDJPY, which has broken out of a falling channel… …and VIX, which put a shot across the algos’ bows this morning in order to ensure the proper response from equities.  It has since bounced back to channel bottom support — putting the knee-jerk reaction in doubt.I’m going to spend the day focused on the big picture.  In the meantime, some food for thought…

Corporate debt to GDP just broke out to new highs.  Note that this ratio correlates well with both recessions and market tops.

Another measure of equity valuations and debt is the multiple of corporate equities to total corporate credit market debt. It just reached levels not seen since 3Q 2000.

The ratio peaked in 1Q 2000 and 2Q 2007, just prior to SPX’s peaks (FRED doesn’t offer SPX data prior to 1990.)


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