Deutsche Bank: All Better?

Thank God for the news cycle, eh DB?  With orange people and snowflakes and Italians hogging the spotlight, DB has slipped on a pair of dark shades and is mingling with all the other regular Joes which are rallying because… well, it doesn’t really matter, does it?

It’s a good thing, because after bouncing 42% since our bottom call on Sep 21 [see: Deutsche Bank: Will it Survive?], DB is clearly ahead of itself.  2016-11-15-db-60-0645

It has broken out of the falling red channel and the rising red channel and has broken above its SMA200 — all good things.  But, it has also completed a Butterfly Pattern that should see it shed at least 7%, probably back to its SMA200 — currently at 15.62.

At some point, folks will start to wonder, again, how many trillions of unhedged FX exposure DB has.  Until that happens, this should be a corrective wave amidst an ongoing stock buyback operation rally.

If the SMA200 doesn’t hold, there is a gap to fill at 14.87 and a forlorn red channel to flesh out at 14.61 or 13.88.  But, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

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