Charts I’m Watching: Oct 21, 2014

Nothing much new from last week.  We remain in a slowmo meltup based entirely on rumors of more easing by central banks — all without confirmation, not to mention actual “flow.”

The USDJPY lost its rising channel overnight, and should continue to settle lower within the falling white channel.

2014-10-21-USDJPY 60 0600

Last night’s ES ramp, courtesy of an unnamed source within the ECB, has the futures up 12 points which, if it holds on for another 30 minutes, should finally get SPX up over the SMA200.

2014-10-21-SPX daily 0600

Next resistance is at 1913-1919 — at which point I would look for a backtest of the SMA200.  The case for lower lows than we saw on Oct 15 diminishes with each passing day during which the algos manufacture a slow, steady drip higher.

2014-10-21-SPX daily CU 0600


Thanks to the algos, no backtests today.  No impact from earnings, or anything else.  In fact, USDJPY and VIX just helped SPX slice through the SMA20 without even a hiccup.  The .618 of the drop from 2019 to 1820 is up ahead at 1943.99.  FWIW, it also represents the top of the falling channel from 2019.  This should be stout resistance, but given the brokenness of this “market,” who knows?

2014-10-21-SPX 60 1130

If there is a reversal, don’t be surprised if — like the majority of the gains — it happens in the after-hours, when investors aren’t around to pile on.

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