Charts I’m Watching: Nov 18, 2014

USDJPY has gone sideways for the last few days, always careful to reacquire the rising wedge lower bound whenever SPX starts to falter.  The Japanese consumption tax increase is almost certain to be postponed, now.  That, and the snap election, are already priced into the “market.”

2014-11-18-USDJPY 15 0600

NKD is consolidating in the 16,900 to 17,600 range, still with no signs of any meaningful retracement of the Oct 31 rally.

2014-11-18-NKD 15 0600ES is flat after bouncing around, taking out stops all night.  SPX’s 10-day moving average finished at 2033.55 yesterday, so that is our new downside target for the day — only 1 point below yesterday’s low.

2014-11-18-SPX 30 0600So, in the end, SPX never did dip to the SMA10; the SMA10 is rising to meet SPX.  It’s another clear sign of the degree of manipulation of this “market”, when not even a simple backtest of a bullish support is permitted.

Because, of all the squiggles on the above chart, the only one that really matters is the thin purple line marking the USDJPY, which remains only too happy to rally any time stocks start to lose their footing.

UPDATE:  11:15 AM

Case in point…note the leap higher for both USDJPY and NKD when the cash markets opened at 9:30 (6:30 on the charts, shown with white circle.)  The futures had been slightly negative in the minutes leading up to the open, and needed to spark to continue the melt-up into the session.

2014-11-18-JPY&NKD 5 0811

SPX is nearing the interim upside target — the 1.272 at 2050.46.  Prices should ebb here to 2044-45 or so (ideally, 2044.39 at 12:30.)  If not, the next upside target remains 2055.91.

2014-11-18-SPX 5 0811

UPDATE:  3:15 PM

SPX just reached our 2055.91 target (the white 1.618) and has tagged the rising red TL. ES is just a point shy of its 1.618 extension (2055.17).  In addition, USDJPY is at the .886 retracement of its drop from earlier this morning, and VIX has backtested the falling white channel and recovered to above the bottom fan line.  Equities should reverse here.

2014-11-18-SPX 5 1212


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