Bulls are going for an IH&S on the post-Yellen melt-up.
Can it get there? Perhaps. But, NKD and USDJPY argue against it. The Nikkei’s rising white channel broke down yesterday. And, this morning’s rally should be seen as a backtest.
Likewise, the USDJPY got a bounce off a .886, but merely backtested the broken grey channel. The flag pattern/SMA200 target remains.
With the yen continuing to strengthen, Japanese econ data continuing to weaken, and the BOJ sitting on their hands for now, it’s hard to envision a change in direction until the SMA200 is reached.
The tricky aspect of it, though, is that much of the damage is being done at night, when ES can be and is propped up. For instance, a 2,500 contract order sat on the books at 1861 all night — preventing the .618 tag at 1860. So, it’s hard to say whether ES/SPX can remain untouched by all the bedlam surrounding it.