Today should be a carbon copy of yesterday: ignoring dismal economic news, ignoring the 10-yr note warning signs, ramping on USDJPY/NKD, BTFATH, etc. Chart Patterns, Elliott Wave, technical analysis do not apply on the last day of the month which, for PR purposes, has been green for the past three months.
Unless a true black swan event pops up, look for new highs above the Crab Pattern 1.618 Fib of SPX 1918.36. A logical target would be the smaller, red 1.618 (1926.77.)
The bigger picture:
Come Monday, it could be completely different story. But, I can’t imagine TPTB yielding the larger scale 1.618 that they spent so heavily to achieve.
UPDATE: 1:25 PM
What happened to the nice little rally we had going? Loretta Mester is the incoming president of the Cleveland Fed — and a voting member. At a conference on inflation the Cleveland Fed is sponsoring, she made comments about the risk of inflation (right, not deflation as we hear over and over.) This brands her as a potential hawk, and opens a window on the changing dynamic in the FOMC’s thinking.
10-yr yields broke a rising trend line — though they were quickly neutralized by TPTB. SPX and ES retraced .886 of the rise from this morning. USDJPY fell back below the SMA20. And, SPX is back to that 1.618 and trying to rebuild some momentum.
As I was typing this, John Wiilliams (SF Fed) was on CNBC talking about the possibility of overshooting 2% inflation. The “market” isnt’ so happy about all this crazy talk!