Charts I’m Watching: May 20, 2013

NOTE:  If you found your way to this page, you know that the correct page is now http://pebblewriter.com rather than https://pebblewriter.  The “s” was dropped is the course of the transfer from GoDaddy to Hostgator because it’s been many moons since memberships were paid for directly through this website.  Now, new and renewing members go directly to PayPal’s website, and they have their own SSL security (and more.) 

I found that the SSL capability didn’t play well with Disqus and a number of other features that we all like.  More on that later.  In the meantime, some of the links within posts and on menus might still point to an “https” page — landing you on an error message instead of the content you sought.  These are being converted over, but if this should happen to you simply go up to the address bar and remove the “s” from the page you’re on and refresh.

I have already been impressed with Hostgator’s speedy and superior customer service.  I think once a few bugs are ironed out, the site will run much faster and reliably.

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Nothing much has changed since Friday’s close.  There’s a slight negative bias, which could be nothing more than consolidation after Friday’s rally.  We’ll play along on the downside, with the understanding that 1673 is still on the table either intra-day with a reversal, or on the way higher. In other words… tight stops.

Price has been on a tear, but the underpinnings of the rally have been fading the past several days — as seen on the 60-min RSI chart.

We went to cash at the close Friday because of the disagreement between short-term and long-term patterns such as are displayed in the currencies.  The euro and dollar have hit short-term targets, but have more room to go before the tide turns.

UPDATE:  10:10 AM

SPX just pushed above 1667.  I’m going to switch to the long side with stops at 1667 in the expectation that it’s headed to 1673.

Note that we’re currently above the yellow TL connecting the 1994 and 2002 lows, and at 1667.50 have pushed above the top of the purple channel itself.

As I mentioned earlier, this might be nothing more than an intra-day move. But, we can’t ignore the possibility of a breakout here.  It’s visible on both the short-term and longer-term RSI charts — the action immediately ahead of us will determine which it is.

 

The most logical move, given the degree to which we’re overbought, would be a reversal off the channel tops.  But, we’ll see…

UPDATE:  12:47 PM

SPX got within .16 of our 1673 target and is rolling over.  Watch for the latest even-more-steeply sloped channel (white) to catch it around 1669-1670.  A drop back through the top of the purple channel would argue for 1663 (yellow dashed TL) for starters, maybe lower.

I’ll likely take a crack at an interim short position with any push through 1669.60.

UPDATE:  12:56 PM

Here we go… interim short here at 1669.60.

 

I jumped the gun on that one.  Stopped out with a bounce at the top of the purple channel.  Should have been more like 1669.  Too bad, because the dollar’s confirming a drop here — as is SPX RSI.

I’ll probably just wait for a push through 1669 instead.

To give you an idea of how silly this has become, the little white channel slopes up through the red channel which slopes up through (and has, for the moment at least, departed) the purple channel.

This is, by definition, exponential: increasing at an increasing rate.

UPDATE:  1:19 PM

Just got the break.  Full short here at 1669.  Charts in a few…

For the bears, a move back through 1663 is necessary to generate any real downside potential.  Otherwise, this could be viewed as a backtest of the yellow TL.

As always, watch for the back test of the broken channel/TL — in this case, stops around 1670.50 should be safe.

 

 


UPDATE:  2:40 PM

Got very close to the yellow TL and bounced.  It’s not clear yet whether that was the extent of it.  But, I’d expect SPX to at least tag the red channel midline — currently at 1663.75.

UPDATE:  3:55 PM

Holding short into the close.  The dollar and euro appear very ready to reverse, and SPX is still back below the purple channel top, meaning a reversion to the midline is the most likely scenario.

 

more later…

Comments

Charts I’m Watching: May 20, 2013 — 3 Comments

  1. Congrats on the server move, Godaddy’s service and support is beyond infuriating.