Happy OPEX Friday. The futures are pointing higher, as are the 10-yr and the USDJPY. And, we’re due for a snapback after yesterday. But, we can expect significant overhead resistance from the SMA10 and SMA20 for both SPX and ES (1881.93 and 1878 for SPX, 1876.78 and 1874.35 for ES.) Note that the SMA20 is around the .382 retrace from recent highs.
10-yr rates held a critical support trend line yesterday — but, barely. I think we could go back up and close the gap, but stocks will have to do some heavy lifting by pushing through those moving averages.
Likewise, the 10-yr futures — having held the .618 yesterday — might have trouble supporting very much of a run. Look for a backtest of 125’225. If it breaks back down through it, then stocks might have a shot at a bigger rally.
Since it is OPEX, it’s worth noting that max pain is at 187 for SPY, and SPX VWAP is 1873.30 (1866.22 for ES.) Odds are we’ll just get a lot of bouncing around between the moving averages today, with any significant action waiting until the weekend.
UPDATE: 1:40 PM
If it feels like nothing but whipsawing today, here’s why. Ain’t triangles fun?