Charts I’m Watching: Mar 25, 2015

Fascinating interplay between the yen, the euro and the dollar today.  Biggest problem for bulls continues to be the broken rising white channel.

2015-0325 USDJPY 60 0855Look for any more downside to be relegated as much as possible to the after-hours to offset the likely overnight decline in CL, which is ramping like crazy to try and stop SPX’s plunge.  There’s a nice backtest available at the close where the red midline crosses the white channel bottom at 119.80.

They had to run CL up through two channel tops — one of them from Jun 2014!  Same thing happened on Mar 5, and they had to ramp USDJPY back above the .618 at 120.11 to cover CL’s retreat.

2015-0325 CL ES 60 1113

SPX tagged our downside target [see: Mar 20 Update] of 2089 early this morning.  A meager bounce saw it slide through support at the SMA50 to within a point of our final target of the day: 2066-2068.2015-0325 SPX 15 min 1054The EURUSD is lending a hand as best it can, but badly needs a breather.

2015-0325 EURUSD 60 1113

Breaking the TL from Mar 12 definitely did some damage.  What does it do to our forecast?

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