Charts I’m Watching: Mar 16, 2015

The big story in the markets overnight is crude’s near collapse below the trend line from 1998 to test its Feb lows.

2015-03-16-CL 60 0600The long-term chart:

2015-03-16-CL weekly 0710But, USDJPY came to the rescue yet again, popping up to test (5th time) the falling red TL upper bound with a threatened breakout…

2015-03-16-USDJPY 60 0600…and sending ES scurrying higher overnight.  It’s currently showing a 12.75 gain and backtesting the .382.

2015-03-16-ES 60 min 0600The stage is set for SPX to pop and drop. But, the ramp job should get it up over the SMA50 at 2059.27 in the opening minutes.  So, it’ll be interesting to see whether it takes the bait.

Note that USDJPY has backed off the channel top, and is signalling a retest of the white channel midline or lower — but, not until it’s done providing cover for oil

2015-03-16-USDJPY 60 0630It now appears more likely that the backtest of the yellow .618 at 120.11 might wait until Wednesday — perhaps as the initial kneejerk reaction to the Fed announcement.

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