Charts I’m Watching: Jun 25, 2013

For those interested in the new fund, I have added a page to the website where you can sign up for news and updates.  Because the offering will be a private placement, you will be asked to affirm that you are an accredited investor* before being able to register.  

Please note that pebblewriter.com members will be given priority (first come, first served) for the 100 slots I plan to offer.  To sign up, CLICK HERE.  If you received an email update on June 20, there is no need to register again.  If you have signed up since June 20, you will included in the next update going out later this week.

In conjunction with the offering (and because it’s long overdue) I am planning a road show in late July or August.  Domestic stops will most likely include NY, Chicago, Atlanta, Miami, Dallas, Denver, LA and SF.  I’ll provide dates as soon as the schedule firms up.

* we are still working on a means by which non-accredited investors may participate — details later.

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As discussed yesterday afternoon, the rally is on.  Our scenario is playing out as expected so it will be safe to be long on the opening.  Once SPX reaches that cluster of upside targets [see: 3:10 update], watch for a swift downdraft to our 2nd downside target.

DX will be under pressure initially, but should resume its push after fleshing out the little corrective channel.

EURUSD’s backtest of the broken channel line could theoretically get as high as 1.3178, but — like DX — it seems to know this is a head fake and doesn’t want to get caught rallying for no good reason.

UPDATE: 10:18 AM

At 1588.31, SPX came within about 3 points of closing the gap at 1591.17 from Friday, and is doing its best to shake out the weak hands before doing so.  Note that we’re within striking distance of our other targets [yesterday’s post: 1:45 update]:

The midline of the red channel (the one I’m expecting to play out) intersects with the midline of the more bullish white channel at 1593 or so, and a move to that level would close the gap at 1591.17.

Also, 1593.77 is the .618 of the same pattern where the .786 was 1568.38.  A retracement from the .786 to the .618 is quite normal, even when the eventual move is to the .886.  And, of course, 1593.98 is a .886 retracement of the drop from Friday’s high.

Last, don’t forget about the white dotted line lurking behind the white .618.  This is the TL connecting 1552 and 1576 (the 2000 and 2007 highs.)  SPX obviously exceeded it in April, but fell back through as reported on Jun 20.  Today’s rally can legitimately be considered a backtest of it.

This bump up is likely a corrective wave in pursuit of our goal set back on May 29.   It’s obviously coming much earlier than expected, following a rebound from 1598 to 1664 (versus our forecasted 1594 to 1668/1677.)

As we discussed yesterday, the timing changes things a bit.  I am working on revising the forecast, and will hopefully post it later today (assuming we reach our target by then.)  continued for members


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