Charts I’m Watching: Jul 24, 2014

Wednesday, the dip came early — with ES giving up 5 points early in the session before rebounding.  A Bat Pattern completed at 3am, sparking a 9-pt ramp job and continuing the “market’s” practice of making important reversals in the after-hours.  The net: hold overnight at your own risk, because the close is likely to be a head-fake.

2014-07-24-ES 15 0615

Interestingly, the futures have declined since the better than expected initial claims.  And, this on the biggest POMO day of the month. Go figure.

UPDATE: 10:15AM

Guess we know why the weakness on the opening, despite huge spikes in USDJPY and yields: the craptastic housing report was obviously well-known by some prior to the opening.  Like last June, no polar vortex, high interest rates or boogie man to blame it on…  From Zerohedge:

Screen Shot 2014-07-24 at 7.16.38 AM

In fact, it probably explains yesterday’s weak close, below the TL for SPX.  It’ll be interesting to see whether such dismal economic news can provoke even a small sell-off.

Interesting historical note: the even worse July 2013 report was released on Aug 16.  SPX, in the middle of an 83-point, 18-day slump, fell 9 points on the day.  It was on the heels of a month-long correction that began on May 22 and knocked 126 points  (7.5%) off SPX.  At the time, the Fed was pumping $85 billion per month into the banks’ coffers (though Bernanke had already used the “T word” in June.)

 

Comments are closed.