Charts I’m Watching: Jan 7, 2015

After yesterday’s sharp intra-day reversal, we identified SPX’s SMA100 and the round number 2000 as downside targets.  It was touch and go, but SPX closed 2002.61 — just a smidge under the moving average.

2015-01-07-SPX daily 0600As we’ve long maintained, the key to a bounce was USDJPY, which initially held key support — but ultimately broke down.    From yesterday:

The problem child is USDJPY, which has dropped below the purple .886 yet again.  It’s tough to tell when this highly-manipulated currency pair is producing a head fake or is legitimately in trouble.  Need we remind readers that the pair is now well below the key .618 at 120.11?  The next support is the red .500 at 118.18.

Thankfully for the bulls, USDJPY snapped back to the rising white channel overnight.

2015-01-07-USDJPY 60 0615And, the 10-yr bounced as expected.

2015-01-07-TNX 60 0600

Oil even rebounded overnight, though it didn’t quite reach the TL as drawn.  But, as discussed in yesterday’s post, there’s a certain margin of error when drawing a TL over a 20 year time span.  The key will be getting back above the white .786 at 49.52.

2015-01-07-CL daily 0630As such, we’re looking at SPX’s bounce finally getting underway this morning.  But, it’s not out of the woods just yet.

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