The e-minis are essentially flat this morning following the first negative inflation (aka deflation) print since the financial crisis. There’s an obvious retreat level around 2102.50 that would allow the rising red channel to flesh out and a backtest of the larger rising white channel (the upside target is equally obvious at the red 1.272 @ 2120.98.)
Rising wedges have been notoriously unreliable since central banks took the wheel. About the best bears can usually hope for is that they broaden into a rising channel. Still, SPX was allowed to dip below the lower bound, so we’d be inclined to bite…
…if only USDJPY weren’t riding to the rescue.
On our usual, detailed chart, it’s fair to say the rising white channel from Feb 2 looks like it’s finally ready to give up the ghost. The purple one we proposed about a week ago would gain additional credence with a backtest at 2100 — its midline.
The timing looks like next Monday, Mar 2. That would necessitate a delay of the 2138 tag — which fits with my leading scenario just fine. Though, I can easily envision a bigger drop to, say, 2093.55 right here and now.
The key for bulls is to frame it as a backtest of the horizontal red channel. If that should fail to hold, a dip to the SMA20 at 2068.24 would permit a backtest of the broken falling gray channel and further flesh out the rising purple channel.