A little movement this morning with the intensifying trouble in Ukraine and dreadful housing numbers here in the US. Yesterday’s USDJPY ramp has largely vaporized. Still, it changed the trajectory of the pair somewhat.
The e-minis, which already left the acceleration channel with yesterday’s water treading, appear to be rolling over. A break below 1830 would be a good start. But, let’s not discount the obvious intent to prop this sucker up. And, that’s where the headline news comes in.
I often think of markets like elections. The hardcore bulls and bears probably won’t be swayed. It’s the folks in the middle who decide which way it goes. If the headlines out of Ukraine, Thailand, China, Fed Minutes, etc. are bad enough, the selling pressure can become too intense for TPTB (and, for those opportunistic players who’d rather make more money than toe the “markets are fabulously healthy” line.)
Otherwise, the bulls will top the Dec highs (on SPX and COMP anyway), as the Fed minutes are unlikely to provide the bears much useful ammunition. The market, it seems, is more than willing to ignore the impact of the taper — or, to believe that it will vaporize at the first sign of trouble.
UPDATE: 3:50 PM
Dow’s off 75, SPX off 12… Even the hint of rising interest rates is enough to spook the markets. More importantly, the issues in Ukraine has refocused attention on EM. The IMF is calling EM a crisis…
Just took a fresh look at the transports… Immediate support at 696.50 (an 8.25% decline from the top.) If that doesn’t hold, no support until 639.87 — a 15% decline (equivalent of 1573 on SPX…the 2007 high.)