Charts I’m Watching: Feb 12, 2015

Yesterday went according to plan, with the initial and subsequent moves in SPX tagging both our purple and yellow initial targets. From the initial post (members section):

SPX might limit any initial weakness to 2064 or so — particularly if they’re able to hold the line on CL.  If USDJPY reverses, or CL continues to plummet, then we’re probably looking at 2057 (yellow dot) to flesh out the rising white channel.  In either case, the goal for bulls is to break through the white channel top and reach 2080.70 — the purple .886/1.272 combo.

We added the second purple target as a less likely option after the yellow target was nailed, but set our sights on the red target at 2080.70.  From the 1:30 update:

SPX just tagged our initial yellow target (I had been uncertain as to when it would happen, so drew two yellow targets this morning.)  I’ve moved our upside red target (2080.70) over to tomorrow morning, and added a the purple dot at 2053.54 as a potential downside target. I don’t see it as very likely…

As mentioned above, 2080.70 is the .886 retracement of the drop from 2093 to 1980, as well as the 1.272 extension of the latest, much smaller downturn.  It caught my eye when SPX bottomed at 2040 Monday afternoon — setting up an intersection between the two patterns.2015-02-12 SPX 15 0600CL broke out of the falling red channel overnight — a net positive.

2015-02-12 CL 30 0600But, USDJPY gave up the critical yellow .618 Fib line at 120.11 — a real headwind for SPX.

2015-02-12 USDJPY 15 0600Note ES’s behavior the last time USDJPY failed at this Fib line. 2015-02-12 USDJPY 60 0600Today’s targets coming up.  Continued for members...


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