Just to make it official, today is the long-awaited Day 150.
UPDATE: 2:55 PM
This morning’s gains fading fast. At this rate, we’ll have a pretty bearish candle pattern on the day, too.
UPDATE: 12:00 PM
SPX has fallen back to a 5-pt gain. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD slide has continued. The 60-min chart broke decisively through its 200-period moving average and RSI trend line. It shows very substantial negative divergence.
DX, on the other hand, is testing its 200-period moving average to the upside, and is showing substantial positive divergence.
UPDATE: 11:00 AM
Quick update on EUR/USD. First, the big picture:
And, the close up, showing the bearish Bat pattern playing out on the 60-min chart:
And, here’s VIX, poking way down deep into its lower Bollinger band, and completing a Bat pattern on the daily chart.
This morning’s spurt actually improves the look of the yellow channel lines I drew yesterday. The lower parallel trend line does a better job of connecting the previous highs and lows.
The 5-min RSI we were watching seems to have given up on the TL and is heading back down. In short, the market is feeling very toppy here.
ORIGINAL POST: 10:00 AM
We completed the Bat more precisely. It called for 1254.44 and yesterday’s high was 1251.09. This morning’s high so far is 1257.3. The little Gartley fell by the wayside, and a bearish Butterfly took its place.
We have negative divergence setting up on every time frame short of the daily chart.
And, so far, the failure of even the 5-min RSI to break its resistance trend line.
A clean break to the upside would be a warning that there’s more upside left. Otherwise, we may have just seen the top.