Charts I’m Watching: December 2, 2011

Just to make it official, today is the long-awaited Day 150.

UPDATE:  2:55 PM

This morning’s gains fading fast.   At this rate, we’ll have a pretty bearish candle pattern on the day, too.

UPDATE:  12:00 PM

SPX has fallen back to a 5-pt gain.  Meanwhile, the EUR/USD slide has continued.  The 60-min chart broke decisively through its 200-period moving average and RSI trend line.  It shows very substantial negative divergence.

DX, on the other hand, is testing its 200-period moving average to the upside, and is showing substantial positive divergence.

More later.

UPDATE:  11:00 AM

Quick update on EUR/USD.  First, the big picture:

And, the close up, showing the bearish Bat pattern playing out on the 60-min chart:

And, here’s VIX, poking way down deep into its lower Bollinger band, and completing a Bat pattern on the daily chart.

This morning’s spurt actually improves the look of the yellow channel lines I drew yesterday.  The lower parallel trend line does a better job of connecting the previous highs and lows.

The 5-min RSI we were watching seems to have given up on the TL and is heading back down.  In short, the market is feeling very toppy here. 


We completed the Bat more precisely.  It called for 1254.44 and yesterday’s high was 1251.09.  This morning’s high so far is 1257.3.    The little Gartley fell by the wayside, and a bearish Butterfly took its place.

We have negative divergence setting up on every time frame short of the daily chart.

And, so far, the failure of even the 5-min RSI to break its resistance trend line.

A clean break to the upside would be a warning that there’s more upside left.  Otherwise, we may have just seen the top.
More later.


Charts I’m Watching: December 2, 2011 — 6 Comments

  1. Wow Monday does seem to be interesting. The stars are aligning…The way the market reversed today, the VIX touched its 200 days MA and bounced right up, the way EURO flat-lined…Next week promises to be lots of firework

  2. Additionally on the Sunday we will also have a :(although not exact to the degree)

    conjunction of venus and pluto w 3 degrees orb square the moon with 3 degrees of orb and trine mars with 4 degrees orb

    2 of Ganns classic setups on the same day
    Monday could be interesting if I am interpreting it correctly but would love to hear a fellow devotes thoughts…

  3. Timer I notice you are a student of Gann analysis

    Any thoughts on this?

    Sunday evening we will have a conjunction of sun and mercury w 1 degree orb

    this will be square with mars and trine with the moon which was Gann's classic trigger for "something big to happen" (conjunction that is square and trine)

    Also what program is that you used for the screenshot

    Oh and PW, keep up the good work…. solid harmonic analysis done right for sure

  4. Could be because the ramp this morning was on an overly optimistic reaction to the jobs report, as opposed to the usual overly optimistic reaction to a solution to the euro mess.

  5. I spotted the same pattern, and in addition I also noticed a gartley in the EUR/USD pair on a 1hr time frame. Good analysis