UPDATE: 2:00 PM
We’re at a critical level in the short run.
SPX is paused here at the .382 Fib retracement of the rise we’ve seen over the last two weeks. It also marks one of our key channel lines (dashed, white.) A breakdown through the bottom of these support levels would also mark a failure of the wedge to hold.
One helpful guide is the 5-min RSI. Here’s it’s forming a little symmetrical triangle. I’m looking for a breakout one way or the other as an indication of next steps.
There’s a slight positive divergence going on with the short-term charts, but not enough to be overly concerned.
UPDATE: 11:20 AM
A quick review of the channels we’re watching. As we discussed last week, the descending broadening wedge continues to play out, with another touch of the bottom wedge line threatening to wipe out Friday’s gains.
Note, the bottom wedge line is also a trend line off the 1292 highs.
UPDATE: 10.00 AM
EUR/USD continues to respect the channel line we drew months ago, even completing a nice little head and shoulders pattern on the 60-min chart.
Why do I have so much confidence in this channel? It’s at exactly the same slope as the three previous declines. In other words, this isn’t my bias talking. Just a three-peat of an established pattern.
If we continue down the same path, notice that there are some pretty violent crashes in the two previous channels, with .05 – .08 weekly moves after a period of consolidation at the channel boundaries.