Charts I’m Watching: Dec 15, 2014

SPX came very close to Friday morning’s downside target of 1996:

If USDJPY continues to slide or even (horrors!) actually declines, SPX is going down.  In that event, the SMA50 or SMA100 could team up with the .886 to provide a stop at 1996.

USDJPY did continue to slide, and SPX along with it.  SPX dropped 33 points to 2002.33, just missing the SMA50 at 2000.75.

2014-12-15 SPX daily MA 0615The small red channel from above in more detail:

2014-12-15 SPX 60 0615In an unrigged market, SPX would continue down and tag the .886 or even .786.  But, futures are pointing 16 points higher at present.  As usual, it will depend largely on USDJPY.

USDJPY moved lower into the weekend, but it was a higher low than seen earlier in the week.  And, the pair is back above the purple .886.  It was enough of an improvement to help boost futures. But, USDJPY is in a triangle until we get either a breakout or breakdown.

2014-12-15 USDJPY 60 0605SPX should test 2019 — the previous high and the red channel top.  I’d be mildly surprised if we didn’t get a reversal there — whether or not it eventually breaks out.

I’d also keep an eye on the e-mini’s 50-period moving average on the 60-min chart (purple, below) — a fairly accurate short-term indicator lately.

2014-12-15 ES 60 0635Assuming we get a reversal at 2019, what next?

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